There’s been increasing discussion about how to maximise the number of seats for pro-indy parties in next year’s election, with at least one ‘list party’ having already been set up 1/
(Recent polling suggests the SNP will achieve another overall majority, so the below discussion may be largely academic.) 2/
Central 4.7% 0
Glasgow 9.4% 1
Highlands& Islands 7.2% 1
Lothian 10.6% 2
Mid Scot & Fife 6.1% 1
NE Scot 4.9% 0
South Scot 4.7% 0
West Scot 5.3% 1
5/
6/
Christopher Melville has helpfully set up this site, which will show conveniently show the effect of the shift of the SNP list vote to a single alternative list party, the ISP:
listvotescotland.com
10/
My first observation is minimum % transfer modelled is fully 5%.
In light of above, this is likely to *vastly* overestimate % attained by even one extra list party (realistic figure: maybe 1%). 11/
On an overly optimistic move of 5% of the SNP vote to the ISP, the SNP will lose one MSP to the *Tories* in Highlands & Islands.
Same result with a 10% swing: zero ISP MSPs elected, and one more unionist Tory at the expense of the SNP. 19/
SNP -2
Green -3
ISP +8
Con -3
Pro indy +5
Pro-union -3
(2 seats unaccounted for presumably because of algorithmic simplicity on the site: not sure if it computes effect on all parties.) 20/
SNP -2
Green -3
ISP +8
Con -3
Pro indy +3
Pro-union -3
Even I was intrigued by the merits of the argument for voting for a list party because a ‘list SNP vote is wasted’.
It *seems* to make perfect sense.
But when you look at the actual modelled predictions it absolutely doesn’t.
Parties with no profile, no well known leaders, no funds & no members are going nowhere, especially not starting from scratch months before the election.
Before you are tempted to vote for one, think why even Tommy Sheridan mustered only 0.6% in 2016
Which party will you vote for in the list if not SNP/Greens?
(I’d add Solidarity and RISE too, but Twitter only allows four options.)
Pls RT for bigger sample.
Unless anyone donates their lottery winnings to buy them publicity, they won’t.
*Not one seat* has ever been won on the list by a party achieving less than 5% of the regional vote (lowest was 5.1% for a Lib Dem in Central Scotland, 2007).