1/6 With Damien Puy, we make public our quarterly dataset of macro & financial data since 1950. It covers Real GDP (37 countries), Credit (45), Consumer Prices (48), Stock Prices (26), and Bond yields (18). We use it for our paper on global cycles. imf.org/en/Publication…
2/6 We extend considerably existing quarterly macro-financial international datasets, thanks to a systematic use of IFS paper volumes (published by @IMFNews since 1948). Most was not available online. Presented at @nberpubs thanks to G.Hale & M.Klein conference.nber.org/sched/SI20IFMDS
3/6 Key takeaways from data & the paper: 1) global synchronization has increased over time for prices (goods and assets), but not for quantities (output and credit), despite globalization 2) trade & financial openness have opposite effects on synchronization in normal times.
4/6 On @nberpubs, we make our dataset publicly available before submitting the paper [Updated 2020 version coming soon!] for 2 reasons. 1)given current issues, we hope it’d be helpful to researchers, forecasters etc. trying to assess post-covid recovery & future of globalization
5/6 2)comments are very welcome, either to correct some mistakes or to help us increase the coverage of the database. Dataset also available here, with presentation of sources & methodology. Check it, comment & of course please cite it if you use it ericmonnet.eu/macro-financia…
6/6 A last word about multilateralism ! Our work was made possible because in 1944, the Bretton Woods conference decided that collecting and standardizing international data was essential for a better economy and avoid the disasters of the 1930s...
