Thread by @jmartNYT

NEW: Biden is facing rising pressure to go big, maximize this cycle

-Texas Dems made their case on conf call w Biden brass Thurs
-Sherrod is banging the drum for OH-IO
-Schumer says Biden told him he'll help in *non-prez battleground* Senate races >

nytimes.com/2020/07/11/us/…

No state offers the temptation, or payoff, of TX: blocks any GOP path to the WH, this year and beyond, has most competitive House races of any state + state House/Sup Court control are crucial for redistricting

But...

it has 20 markets & Biden folks don't want to spend the $

Biden "is cautiously optimistic about Texas, but those of us on the ground are more optimistic than they are," says @FilemonVela, an early Biden supporter who, along w other Texas Dems, made the case to @jomalleydillon this week >

nytimes.com/2020/07/11/us/…

Covid has upended candidate travel. But we can still track the $, which is the best tell.

Biden is not spending in GA, TX, OH or IA

But how much Trump is spending, and where he's spending it, is as good a reveal...(more)

Trump's offensive targets?

Last week, he only spent $110K in NM and nothing in NV or NH.

And while he did spend about $478K in MSP, he didn't buy time in any other MN markets. Also: the MSP market reaches to WI so the buy may have been mostly aimed there.

Just as revealing were Trump's defensive buys last week:

He only spent $150K in Michigan, entirely in the GR-Kalamazoo market (home of WOOD!) . Nothing in Detroit.

But he poured over $1.3M into Georgia and over $600K into Ohio, states where Biden isn't on the air

If Ga does tip this year, it'll be in part because of the transformation of Gwinnett Co, outside Atl:

Obama '12: 44.6
Hillary '16: 50.2
Abrams '18: 56.6

If Biden nears 60% there and shaves rural margins even a little, he probably takes the state