Today’s data on COVID in our nation is very concerning.
Houston, we have a problem.
Looking at 7 day averages,
Cases rising in 43 states
% of tests + going up in 39 states
Hospitalizations? up in 29 states
Deaths? Up in 28 states
But not all states are the same
Thread
Houston, we have a problem.
Looking at 7 day averages,
Cases rising in 43 states
% of tests + going up in 39 states
Hospitalizations? up in 29 states
Deaths? Up in 28 states
But not all states are the same
Thread
If we use Convergence TTSI model (developed by large coalition -- see globalepidemics.org)
Cut points (applied to states)
Red: >25 new cases per 100k per day
Orange: 10 - 24.9 new cases per 100K per day
Yellow: 1 to 9.9 new cases per 100K per day
Green: <1 per day
2/6
Cut points (applied to states)
Red: >25 new cases per 100k per day
Orange: 10 - 24.9 new cases per 100K per day
Yellow: 1 to 9.9 new cases per 100K per day
Green: <1 per day
2/6
There are 9 Red States
AZ, FL, LA, SC, TX, GA, AL
Over past 2 weeks,
Hospitalizations are up 86%.
Deaths up 75%. Yes, 75%
15 Orange States:
NV, ID, MS, TN, CA, UT, AK, NC, IA, OK, KS, NM, WI, DE, MN
Over past 2 weeks
Hospitalizations up 42%
Deaths up 26%
3/6
AZ, FL, LA, SC, TX, GA, AL
Over past 2 weeks,
Hospitalizations are up 86%.
Deaths up 75%. Yes, 75%
15 Orange States:
NV, ID, MS, TN, CA, UT, AK, NC, IA, OK, KS, NM, WI, DE, MN
Over past 2 weeks
Hospitalizations up 42%
Deaths up 26%
3/6
There are 28 Yellow States (all the rest except 1)
Over past 2 weeks,
Hospitalizations down 5%
Deaths down 55%
There is one Green state. Ironically, Vermont!
4/6
Over past 2 weeks,
Hospitalizations down 5%
Deaths down 55%
There is one Green state. Ironically, Vermont!
4/6
Things in Red Zone very worrisome
Not sure what turns it around
Certainly, fully enforced mask order
No indoor gatherings. No bars, clubs, restaurants. Only essential retail
May exempt remote counties
Worried they are heading towards full shutdown unless path changes
5/7
Not sure what turns it around
Certainly, fully enforced mask order
No indoor gatherings. No bars, clubs, restaurants. Only essential retail
May exempt remote counties
Worried they are heading towards full shutdown unless path changes
5/7
Orange Zone concerns me – many states on the brink
NV, ID, MS, TN, and CA could turn Red soon.
They have to get aggressive now
CA is large state with some places that look as bad as AZ, TX, other places look fine
6/8
NV, ID, MS, TN, and CA could turn Red soon.
They have to get aggressive now
CA is large state with some places that look as bad as AZ, TX, other places look fine
6/8
Yellow Zone has opportunity to avoid trouble
OH, KY, MO, and WV among those that should ratchet back activity (they're about to turn orange)
Most of these states need to ramp up testing further.
And all of them should try to suppress virus – they still can
7/8
OH, KY, MO, and WV among those that should ratchet back activity (they're about to turn orange)
Most of these states need to ramp up testing further.
And all of them should try to suppress virus – they still can
7/8
Green Zone -- Vermont
Just do what you're doing.
Just do what you're doing.
Much of our nation in trouble
Some states must be aggressive. Their wildfires out of control
Others seeing growing flames. Still containable
Each day # of states getting worse grows
No longer South or West issue. Increasingly an American problem
All states must do more
Fin
Some states must be aggressive. Their wildfires out of control
Others seeing growing flames. Still containable
Each day # of states getting worse grows
No longer South or West issue. Increasingly an American problem
All states must do more
Fin
One more thing
Folks asking if VT really the only state doing well.
No.
Bunch of states have low percent positive tests, largely stable number of cases, and hospitalizations/deaths actually falling.
What states?
RI, NY, MA, NJ, CT, HI, NH, and ME
Folks asking if VT really the only state doing well.
No.
Bunch of states have low percent positive tests, largely stable number of cases, and hospitalizations/deaths actually falling.
What states?
RI, NY, MA, NJ, CT, HI, NH, and ME
