Beijing issued a record RMB 12.1 trillion of total social financing in the first six months of 2020 (to RMB 271.8 trillion). This represents an 8.2% increase in TSF in the first six months of 2020 and a 12.8% increase since last June (compared to...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
scmp.com/economy/china-…
...6.2% and 11.2%, respectively, in the previous year).
Of course what matters is not just the rise in debt but the rise relative to debt-payment capacity, for which nominal GDP is a (very rough) proxy. At the end of 2018, TSF was 248% of GDP. At the...
Of course what matters is not just the rise in debt but the rise relative to debt-payment capacity, for which nominal GDP is a (very rough) proxy. At the end of 2018, TSF was 248% of GDP. At the...
...end of 2019 it was 254%. The ratio soared to 270% in the first quarter of this year because of the contraction in GDP, and while we don’t have second quarter economic data yet, assuming that nominal GDP growth in the first half of the year was up just a little, TSF will...
...have risen further to nearly 280% of GDP by June. If TSF grows by 12-13% for all of 2020 (a conservative assumption) and nominal GDP is up by 3-5%, TSF will be end the year anywhere from 271% of GDP to 278%, a huge leap from 2018 and 2019.
Today my seminar students did...
Today my seminar students did...
...some additional work on the TSF data. They showed that the 12.8% annual growth in TSF was driven by 21.5% annual growth in corporate debt (which before this year had been growing at around 10-13%), 17.0% growth in government debt, and 13.3% growth in RMB loans. That was...
...balanced by a contraction in entrusted loans and WMP. In fact part of the reason for the stock market rally of the past several weeks was probably money leaving WMP, nervous, it seems about the rise in defaults.
