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1/ Hey there, Ladies and Gents!
Step right up to learn about:

The Magical
The Mysterious
The Infamous
First of its kind
Destroyer of FUD
Flipper of Paradigms
Decimater of Order Books
Adaptive Moneyyyyyyyyyyyyy

#Ampleforth
2/ Before we dive into the current market, lets talk background.

AMPL is Adaptive Money which uses supply smoothing. Every night it adjusts its supply 1/10th of the way towards its target price.

1/10th is to make sure it does not over adjust and to not overly shock the market
3/ Why is this cool?

This has two functionalities. Early stage, it acts as a pump to add arbitrage opportunities on the way up.

Late stage it acts as an anchor to keep price rooted when the market cap is less volatile.
4/ Say whaaaaat? I though AMPL crashed huge/was stable/isnt a stablecoin/etc

You are right. It did. But when AMPL came out it lacked a market, so lets get back to the current market.

WTF is happening.
5/ Well the Geyser is happening. An incentive program to put liquidity on uniswap.

Why does Uniswap matter here?

Well Order Books don't know how to handle supply smoothing. They don't adjust to rebases.

Uniswap adjusts right at the rebase as it calculates price from its supply Image
6/ So now suddenly people are putting money in a market and that market is automatically adjusting to supply changes.

The greater this grows the greater it can react to Order Books and the greater liquidity can be arbed away.

The low cap means small changes big MC shift.
7/ Geyers fuels liquidity pool to grow.
Demand causes MC to rise
Rebase causes arb to open
arb causes price to find middle of pre/post rebase
arb causes increase in fees
fees cause more users in LPs
Repeat.

But why hasn't anyone else done this.

Cause impermanent loss is wild Image
8/ Not only does supply smoothing cause great amplification to the initial market adoption, it also acts to reduce impermanent loss over time making a new kind of Liquidity Provider model not seen elsewhere.
9/ But this can't go on forever can it?

So long as there is sufficient liquidity in Uniswap to arb Stale bids I think it can. And there is a lot of liquidity to eat.

However this also means AMPL holders must feed the geyser to fuel the arb opportunity. Without that, no pump. Image
But markets continue to adapt. Tonight for the first rebase there is a force pushing the price down. Just crossed it. This meme is stale like Bitfine x Bids at rebase time.

But even with this. Everyone gets new tokens tonight as the price corrects, a new arb opens soon. Image
10?/ But how can we keep the pump going forever?

Well right now there is a realization straight holding AMPL can be way profitable on a shorter time horizon, so less supplying to the geyser through the pump.

In response Beehive was launched as an improvement to geyser.
11/ Will beehive bee enough incentive to reestablish uniswap as the price setting monolith?

Will AMPL heads realize to be most greedy is to give to hive?

How will we manage our offering to supply smoothing gods?
12/ But what happens when the ARB is gone?
What do we do from there?
After the ARB stops we have a significant time period where rebases are still positive, even if MC slows growth, or even moves downwards less significantly.

I/AMPL holders believe this is a better money.
13/ Sound money, elastic supply.
No significant security budget to worry about.
It can just focus on being good adaptive money.
PS. once it rebases down to 1 it actually makes it a great opportunity to establish its price floor in AMMs, which can easily lead to an interest only powered pump just from ARBs with other AMMs that are starting to get in on the action, establishing a broad Automated AMPL MM
chart thanks to @d5_dao's
nansen.ai

Fantastic data.
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