Thread by @jillongovt

about to watch supertimely @instituteforgov #IfGBrexit event..govt about out tell business to check, change, go.. but is business likely to be ready do to that?

@instituteforgov Ian Wright tells everyone winter is peak time for food imports.. food has kept flowing despite corona.. no deal Brexit preps worked...but can't assume preps will work in 6 months time

@instituteforgov new border model will be much more complicated.. asks whether JIT food supply system.. industry asked 90 detailed questions on how model wd work ..

@instituteforgov heat treated pallets a metaphor for level of new complexity.. so far only able to give answers to 6 of those 90 questions

@instituteforgov Now Lloyd from @SMMT - covid started to break down supply chains - caused production/registration to stop - reg down 97% in May.. prod down 95% in May..

@instituteforgov @SMMT tens of thousands furloughed - therefore been unable to prepare for brexit - now shifted to covid and survival with challenged cash flow - SMEs may have exhausted credit lines so unable to invest

@instituteforgov @SMMT bigger manufacturers slightly better prepared - but need the detail now. Some of last year's plans still stand but govt has eg changed tariff schedule... not zero tariffs on components which was proposed originally

@instituteforgov @SMMT not clear what else govt is changing..

@instituteforgov @SMMT Now Sonali from @fsb_policy - all SMEs focussed just on surviving covid crisis.. cash flow a major challenge (emerging theme here..) on life support from govt.. most exposed now as govt schemes taper down.

@instituteforgov @SMMT @fsb_policy lots of businesses taken on a lot of debt - big questionmarks over domestic demand so can't predict the future.. challenging context to think about making changes to cope with new EU regime..

@instituteforgov @SMMT @fsb_policy phasing will not exempt SMEs from all the day one requirements eg providing customs codes.. but now just focussing on survival. Also issues for those who move goods into NI. Need to know what additional friction looks like.. need time to make changes.

@instituteforgov @SMMT @fsb_policy 6 months is very short amount of time. Firms may not know whether can bring staff back from furlough. will intermediaries be more willing to take on SME clients? Outside business control.

@instituteforgov @SMMT @fsb_policy Finally @GeorgeMRiddell on services.. v much agree focus on goods - regardless of whether there is an FTA will be a lot of friction on the services side - immigration; but limits on business travel not talked about.... allowable activity v restricted

@instituteforgov @SMMT @fsb_policy @GeorgeMRiddell there will also be restrictions on establishment which could limit where UK firms operate going forward.. additional restrictions for accountancy, law; audiovisual will lose a lot of market access