[Thread] (1) Here's the twitter summary of my recent post on the rise and fall of empires. Although the motivations for empire building differ, the end result is always the same. Empires concentrate the flow of energy.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/11/why…
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/11/why…
(2) That means we can judge the extent of imperial power using relative energy use. We compare energy use (per person) in the empire's core to energy use in the periphery. The greater this ratio, the more "successful" the empire. (Note scare quotes. I'll return to this later).
(3) Let's look first at the largest scale ... the entire history of civilization. Along with agriculture, the first empires arose in the 'West' (the Mediterranean basin). We can chart this rise and fall with energy.
(4) Here's energy use in the 'West' relative to energy use in the 'East' over the last 15,000 years. Notice the rise early on, followed by a drastic collapse during the Middle Ages. After the Roman empire ended, Western Europe became a feudal backwater. 
(5) Jumping ahead to modern empire, here's the rise and fall of the British empire. Britain began to conquer the world in the 17th century. At that point it consumed the same energy as the world average. What followed was a spectacular rise and fall.
(6) Brexiters want Britain to be independent from Europe, as it supposedly once was. But Britain was never independent as a nation state. It was independent as a world empire. And that empire is (long) gone.
(7) Moving on, here's the rise and fall of the US empire. Note that it has not 1 but 2 peaks. The first happens after US independence. The second happens after WWII. At the peak of US dominance, it consumed roughly 1/3 of world energy.
(8) Since 1970, the US has been in steep decline. Trump promises to 'make America great again'. But if by this he means a return of American world dominance, it's not going to happen. The US is on the same road as Britain. Its imperial heights are long gone.
(9) No story of empire is complete without discussing the rising power. Today that's China. Here's the fall and rise of China, written in energy use per person:
(10) In 1700, China was arguably the center of world civilization. The Qin empire commanded 1/3 of the world's population. But as Europeans conquered the world, Chinese power declined. That would change after the communist revolution. But not before millions starved.
(11) Over the last 40 years, China's energy expansion has been remarkable. But notice that it still consumes only about 30% more energy per person than the world average. In contrast, the average American consumes 380% more than the world average.
(12) We may be headed for a 'Chinese century'. But China still has a long way to go to becoming the undisputed world power.
(13) Finally, the history of empire may be written in the 'language of energy', but this needn't relate to human well-being. In fact, fossil-fuel-driven empire is suicidal in the long run.
(14) If former imperial powers want to be 'great again', they can do so by becoming equitable and sustainable. But this transition won't come from elites. They're too busy hanging on to their (fading) power. Just look at Trump.
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