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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@AndrewNoymer
Jul 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Latest:
*VERY* crude math:

USA: 3,545,077 cases; 139,143 deaths

Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases

Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.39%

~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n

➡️ 900,000 deaths

Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
Minimodel down to a nice round number: 900,000

However, I am #OnTheRecord as saying that — on an excess mortality basis — the USA won't escape with fewer than 1,000,000 deaths.

continues...

more about the minimodel in this thread:
Am I saying that my own minimodel is wrong?

Sort of.

The minimodel is a barometer, and I believe the mercury has fallen lately and will rise again. See tweet below.

continues

cont'd

Also friends, please remember that I'm saying million deaths on an excess basis, but minimodel is built off "dashboard deaths" (cf. thread below, for that distinction).

Lastly, 1,000,000 is not calendar year 2020 remark. Just... before the end.

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More from @AndrewNoymer

Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
Goalpost-moving, a short thread. 0/7
I remember a few years back there was a measles case at UCI Medical Center. They pulled out all the stops. Negative-pressure room, PPE, yada-yada. Lots of sturm und drang about how contagious it is. 1/7
I thought this was theatrical, given majority of over-60s (at the time) had natural immunity to measles; most other folks have vaccine-induced immunity. Was considered standard operating procedure for measles case. Perhaps rightly, given immunocompromised ppl at hospitals. 2/7
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 27, 2022
We need to speak more candidly about the covid vaccine effectiveness.

This is the dashboard from UC, Irvine. To work here or be a student, requires being vaxxed AND boosted. Ostensibly, all of these — 408 active cases, of which 64 incident yesterday — are vaxxed and boosted.
Yes, there are a small number of granted exemptions, and, yes, some people may be non-compliant (especially as regards boosters, though that's speculation on my part).

But there *has* been enforecement, including at least one non-vaxxed tenured faculty member being fired.
So these cases are occurring in what's for all intents and purposes a 100% vaxxed/boosted group; as close to it as can be attained in the *real* *world*.

Yet all these infections. We need to be more honest about this.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 11, 2022
The big pandemic of the 19th century was the cholera outbreaks in large European cities. Hamburg and London, especially.

mini-THREAD.
These cholera epidemics helped John Snow make case for modern germ theory of disease. Also spawned massive & costly public health response: clean drinking water.

Ppl were provided w/ clean(er) drinking water, whether they wanted it or not; society (writ large) footed the bill.
cont'd:

Hard not to see parallels w/covid, the big pandemic of 21st century, to date.

W/ airborne pathogen, response will be to provide clean(er) indoor air, whether wanted or not, +whether ppl mask or not. End run around mask compliance: massive investment, indoor air quality.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 24, 2021
Let's talk Junes. Short thread.

June 2020. Pandemic was still new and chaotic. Here in California, our first big wave was brewing (would peak in July). We didn't have the devastaion in March/April that NY etc. had had.

We were hoping for seasonality, but no... summer wave.
cont'd

So, in June 2020, we didn't know that much. There were diverging opinions about whether the fall would bring more and when the wave(s) would peak.

❦

June 2021. California has low community transmission; very low. Statewide color-coded tier system is scrapped.
cont'd

This past June, we ditched masks, "opened up the economy". Etc., etc.

Well, good vibes didn't last long. Here we are.

❦

June 2022. I think by then we'll have sense of where we stand.Boosters, winter waves, variants, natural immunity, we will have better persepective.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 29, 2021
Thread on why mRNA vaccines may be giving better immunity vs. SARS-CoV-2 than surviving natural infection.

disclaimer: we still don't understand the long-term correctness of the claim that vaccines are better protection than natural infection.

TL;DR: it's different kind of vax
In this thread I will offer some speculation as to why it's scientifically plausible that the vaccines offer better protection than surviving natural infection.

This is what it is, speculation.

As I said in the parent tweet, it remains to be seen how true this phenomenon is.
cont'd

But if it is true, I don't think it defies logic. And here I will explain why.
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 28, 2021
Regional covid epidemiology in the US of A.

A short 🧵.

Living in California, I have been increasingly optimisitc of late. Pic related.

But...
... continued

But, New York and New Jersey, OTOH, are giving me the heeby jeebies...

... my thinking *before* this pandemic was that the next pandemic would see rapid spread, leading to regions being in phase with one another. Ex., there has not been a ground-stop of aviation.
continued...

And it's not just the northeast. Here's Michigan:

Clearly, the US of A remains a country with epidemics, plural, playing out at least with different timing in different regions.

continues...
Read 6 tweets

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