Let me tell you this:
It is difficult to believe the curve of new confirmed cases per day, because It is highly susceptible to the limitations of @DOHgovph in terms of data management and case validation. Look at the curve of cases by onset of symptoms
1/n
It is difficult to believe the curve of new confirmed cases per day, because It is highly susceptible to the limitations of @DOHgovph in terms of data management and case validation. Look at the curve of cases by onset of symptoms
1/n
Ignore the point the last portion where the line drops, because again, data delays in validation and testing.
As one can see, the cases have seemingly growing at an increasing rate, bar again the last 9 days or so of the data.
Source: drive.google.com/file/d/1M28JzQ…
2/n
As one can see, the cases have seemingly growing at an increasing rate, bar again the last 9 days or so of the data.
Source: drive.google.com/file/d/1M28JzQ…
2/n
Flattening of the curve entails: 1) a basis on a reference curve of no interventions or the worst scenario, and 2) knowledge of the healthcare capacity
3/n
3/n
Based on the study by colleagues in the UP Pandemic Response Team, the worst case may have been getting a peak of 80,000 cases (reference: drive.google.com/file/d/1mNaX6s… written last May).
4/n
4/n
One thing to look at is that a flattened curve is: 1) the peak is lower than the worst possible case, 2) the peak has been pushed later in time for infrastructure to cope, and 3) the peak is low enough not to encumber the health care sector.
5/n
5/n
Nationally, based on new cases < 80,000 and health care utilization rates < 70% (danger level), it seems to be. But I, for one, beg for finer analysis of the situation. Because as we see in the local level, the situation is totally different.
6/n
6/n
Always monitor the local situation. We have been down this road before of neglecting the lower levels of our country. Look at Metro Manila and Cebu, currently the two hotspots of COVID-19.
7/n
7/n
The hospitalization rates are near if not at danger levels. Hospitals reporting being at full capacity. I have just written a long list of hospitals with very high ICU utilization rates in NCR.
8/n
8/n
Cebu City still suffers from the same case. Right now the curves of these hotspots are NOT sufficient for the flattening of the curve as the healthcare capacity is being pushed to the limit.
9/n
9/n
So, has the curve flattened?
If this is flat for you, the curves are not flat enough.
10/10
If this is flat for you, the curves are not flat enough.
10/10
