@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 1/ Thread on int'l school re-opening comparisons from a teacher: I am going to focus on effective reproduction rate (R_t), a measure of intensity and "direction" of disease spread. <1.0 it shows a virus is still gaining ground; >1.0: improving
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 2/ Yes I am a h.s.l history teacher. But one who has communicated and dbl checked my work with experts as much as possible. History teachers know research-- but, by all means, double check my work. One thing we like to do is give sources.
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 2A/ And yes, ofcourse, as every history person will tell you consider the bias of even, and maybe especially, the historian. Here is mine: I am trying to save the lives and future well-being of my kids (students) and close friends (colleagues).
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 3/ Now to work: When they re-opened schools Germany's R_t was at 0.79. Denmark: 0.75. Norway: 0.63 (!). Spain: 0.85. France 0.75. Japan: 0.83. Belgium: 0.73. UK: 0.85. I am using covid19-projections.com for this. Below is a chart I prepared: 
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 4/ I haven't found one cntry that *successfully* attempted to re-open schools without 1st *bending* the curve. Unless you want to make a case for test & trace king SK, who had to re-close but re-open right away. To talk soon abt the real outlier
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 5/ What about the U.S. As a whole? R_t is: 1.06. States that are freaking everyone out (justifiably) right now FL: 1.06. TX: 1.05. AZ: 1.01. CA: 1.06. Granted, about 3 wks ago they were a higher-- 1.15-1.22. But nowhere near NYC in March: 5+
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 6/ But NYC and NJ have got it licked right now, right? There is no danger. They should open up schools! Not so fast. NYC: 1.01 NJ: 1.02. Doing much better than March, but not as well as almost any country I mentioned when they reopened.
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 7/ I found one country that dove into re-opening with R_t above 1.0. That was S. Africa which 1.13. So what happened there?
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 8/ As I noted to @EricTopol (whom I am including b/c he rt'd me before!): it is pretty darn bad. The last numbers I saw, after one month of opening: 968 schools closed, 1260 students and 2400 teachers infected... in one month.
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 9/ Dozens of principals have signed petitions asking for schools to close again. The largest teacher's union has joined them. A leading S. African politican, @MmusiMaimane is publicly demanding they re-close.
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 10/ Sources for that here: africa.cgtn.com/2020/07/14/sou…
allafrica.com/stories/202006…
ewn.co.za/2020/07/10/mai…
allafrica.com/stories/202006…
ewn.co.za/2020/07/10/mai…
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 11/ And even crushing the virus in the community does not guarantee you won't have breakouts. Israel's R_t when they reopened schools was 0.76. They messed up on in-building countermeasures. Not good there: abc7news.com/covid-19-coron…
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol ... 12/ or apparently in Melbourne, Australia (R_t was 0.78 in Australia when they re-opened schools, fyi.) But there are other differences, ones that @j_g_allen and @jksmith34 can appreciate...
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 13/ many European schools-- and buildings in general-- are designed for natural ventilation. Not so with American schools. Many school buildings are old, with poor air circulation and quality. epa.gov/iaq-schools/ta…
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 14/ I have been citing Harvard's recent report and others. MERV13 filters. Air purifiers in every room. Fixed humidity between 40-60. I have taught for 16 yrs. But ask most teachers about these goals for almost any school. Wait for the lol's
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 15/ Maybe masks can do it? But I have seen major experts like @mtosterholm and @WmHaseltine raise concerns about effective mask wearing indoors. Maybe because they know about this: and this
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 16/ And I am as pro-mask as you get. But that shows you what happens when people are complacent or when the masks don't fit. I love my students. But why would they be expected to be better at this than others? And I teach older kids!
@ErinBurnett @j_g_allen @EricTopol 17/ But I digress. The point: these comps lack context. As a historian and teacher they look more like a contrast. Let's not force my students and my friends back into buildings without exploring every other option pls. PLEASE. @GovMurphy
