For the life of me, I will never understand the people who think all the polls are complete fabrications and a tidal wave of Silent Majority voters is standing by to hand Trump an easy victory. He may yet win in November, but he's in real trouble right now, and so is America.
Yes, there's probably a big "Shy Trump Vote" of people horrified at what the Left is doing. It might even be the biggest silent vote in U.S. political history... but still not big enough to completely reverse the polls right now. Trump has a lot of work ahead to achieve that.
Sure, the polls tend to be off, and no single one of them is precise, but the aggregate numbers for Trump right now are well below any reasonable margin of inaccuracy or padding. He might CHANGE that between now and November, but it's a real problem, not a statistical mirage.
And it's not surprising that he'd be in trouble. A lot of voters are frightened and exhausted today. The psychological warfare being waged against them WORKS. The Dem promise to make the pain go away and return to normality sounds like the best they can hope for.
Trump just isn't giving them anything to cleave to, any coherent sense that he can deal with the problems that have them in despair. The Dems are very clear in threatening America with dire consequences for re-electing him. He has to prove he's worth it.
Trump can turn this around, and Biden will inevitably slip once he's not hiding in the basement anymore. Everyone runs better as the Generic Opposition Candidate, but Biden will slip more than most. But Trump has to do much more than assume he will win by default.
The terrain laid out in today's polls for Trump is not just an illusion created by over-sampling Democrats, asking loaded questions, or skewing a few numbers. Trump got a new shuffle of the cards on July 4, but he's mostly played the same old defensive, crabby game so far.
What does the average voter, the person who doesn't live on Twitter and Facebook, the person who doesn't spend all day thinking about ideological crusades, see of Trump except waves of bad news and defensive responses? They're close to thinking nobody could do much worse.
Those are the people Trump has to hit with his re-election campaign. He might do exactly that. It's not over yet by a long shot. But I don't see the point of fantasizing that he totally has this in the bag and only lying pollsters are pretending otherwise. /end
