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1/ I am having trouble with this one. news.yahoo.com/german-study-f…
2/ I believe schools in this region of Germany reopened at the beginning of May. If so, not much time went by before they tested for antibodies. Was this enough time to give a true reflection of the risk of an outbreak?
3/ The study itself was conducted in a region with low case counts.
4/ And, doing some lateral reading, the Rt in Germany in early May was low.
5/ We know that kids have similar viral loads as adults.
6/ And that children in other regions are testing positive at high rates.
7/ So given that we don’t know the rate at which kids produce antibodies (if they produce them at all when they are asymptomatic!), we should probably be a little skeptical.
8/ Are we even certain how often adults produce antibodies when they are asymptomatic or otherwise?
9/ Germany offered a level of testing in schools that we won’t be able to match in the U.S.
10/ And Germany is doing much better than the U.S. is now in managing the spread of the virus.
11/ And despite all of this, even Germany advised against full reopening of schools.
12/ This study does provide some optimism. But we need to be careful not to read too much into this. Reopening has not gone well in some countries. npr.org/sections/coron…
13/ And at some daycare centers in the U.S. shown here
15/ And risks to some of our older students especially may be higher than many perceive (16% =~1 in 6).
16/ Starting by sending back pre K-8 or pre K-9 would provide additional classroom space for distancing, make it easier to keep kids in cohorts, take care of the childcare concern, fix fact that Remote Learning is especially ineffective for younger grades, and be safer for all.
17/ And whatever we do we must accommodate the at-risk and those with at-risk family members
18/ Seeing some alarming trends nationally.
19/ And things have worsened since school ended and kids likely began to interact more in ways they couldn’t while engaged in remote learning.
20/ Latter point, that cases have risen as kids had more opportunities to interact more, makes it hard to accept German study at face value
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