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**Update on "Excess Deaths" in Pakistan**

June 2020 saw significantly higher burials in Karachi govt graveyards than any other month in the past two years

The rise is likely due to some undetected Covid deaths & people not getting treated for other diseases

Data ⬇️

@uszahid
Burials:

June '18: 1,767

June '19: 2,375

June '20: 3,594

One imp caveat - there were only a small number of officially recorded Covid burials (118) in these Karachi graveyards in June, far fewer than the total number of official Covid deaths (around 800)
So some of the "excess burials" will also be of patients who were officially recorded as dying from Covid, but whose families hid the death certificates from graveyard officials

We were told that does happen at times
Credit to officials in Karachi for being so helpful and transparent about this important data... Other cities have been trickier

Without understanding mortality figures - we cannot really know what the impact of the pandemic is
So far, it seems there may also be higher than expected burials in Khi in July too - but possibly by a lesser degree

For Lahore, we only have new data from Miani Sahib graveyard - which suggests after a huge spike in June, a more "normal" level of burials are now taking place
In Miani Sahib:

June '19: 696
June '20: 1176

July '19: 586
1st - 15th *only* July '20: 347

Of course, need to wait until the end of July for total numbers
This fits with what doctors in Lahore have been telling me - that they have seen a marked drop in hospital admissions in recent weeks... reasons aren't clear, could be more people being cautious, or the "smart lockdown" having an impact

Though Eid could see a new spike
We need more mortality data in Lahore to know definitely whether the drop in hospital admissions is also being matched by a drop in deaths / burials... And we need similar figures for elsewhere - then we can make a more accurate assessment of the impact of Covid
See previous thread for more details on a big rise in registered deaths in Lahore comparing this June to last June:
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