Thread by @Prem_Tipster

GW37 - Captaincy Thread

My options:
KDB
Fernandes
Martial
Foden
Salah
Ings
Jesus

Opposition - Last 3 results / xGConceded:

City WAT
1-3 WHU / 1.2
2-1 NEW / 1.21
2-1 NOR 1.02

United WHU
3-1 WAT / 0.6
4-0 NOR / 0.64
0-1 BUR / 0.72

Liverpool CHE
1-0 NOR / 0.06
0-3 SHE 2.38
3-2 CRY / 1.29

Southampton BOU
1-2 MCI / 0.75
4-1 LEI / 1.93
0-0 TOT / 0.38

City are the only ones playing a team that consistently have over 1xGC in their last 3 matches, it's important to remember Norwich was one of those fixtures. Norwich have the lowest xG since the restart with just 3.55. 1.02 of that figure derives from the Watford match alone.

United play against the team with the best defence over the last 3 games. You could make a point that West Ham have had easy fixtures, but you could say that about City's opponents (Watford) too. Even if they did have the strongest defence, United's attacking threat is lethal.

Liverpool vs Chelsea originally looks off-putting. After investigation on Chelsea's defence in recent weeks, the jury is out. You would expect Chelsea's defence to have performed much better. The Norwich match was improved, but they do not offer much going forward anyway.

1/2

Don't get me wrong Sheffield United are a great team, but they aren't renowned for their attacking capabilities (only 5 teams have less xG since the restart). Yet Chelsea allowed them 2.38xG. Palace have the worst xG this season and still had 1.29xG against Chelsea.

2/2

Southampton's opponents Bournemouth have had by far the toughest fixtures in Manchester City, Leicester and Spurs. Obtaining just 0.75 xGC against City is an achievement in itself, as they are the highest team for xG for the whole season and since the restart.

1/2

Saying City had a weakened team would be slightly pedantic, as the team they fielded could easily win most Premier League matches. Spurs have been pretty average going forward all season. 0.38xGC is still something to go by though.

2/2

xGConceded since the restart:

City WAT
8

United WHU
7.4

Liverpool CHE
8.6

Southampton BOU
8.1

This provides more justification that West Ham could be harder to break down. It's also consistent with the last 3 games for Chelsea, who have been weak defensively.

What does the opposition have to play for?

City WAT
Avoiding Relegation

United WHU
Avoiding Relegation, if BOU beat SOU

Liverpool CHE
Champions League

Southampton BOU
Avoiding Relegation

The only team that could potentially have nothing to play for is West Ham.

xG last 3 games:

KDB
N/A - 0 (63 mins) - 0

Fernandes
0.3 - 0 (83 mins) - 1.1 (70 mins)

Martial
0.4 - 0.6 - 0.1 (78 mins)

Foden
0.3 - 0 (26 mins) - 0.7 (60 mins)

Salah
1 (82 mins) - 1.1 - 1.8

Ings
0.5 - 0.1 - 0.9

Jesus
0.3 (76 mins) - 1.6 (63 mins) - 0.7 (60 mins)

xG Points / Minutes played - last 3 games:

KDB - 0 / 153
Fernandes - 7 / 243
Martial - 5.5 / 258
Foden - 5 / 176
Salah - 19.5 / 262
Ings - 6.9 / 270
Jesus - 12.8 / 199

*This includes Forwards getting 4 points per goal and Midfielders getting 5

xA last 3 games:

KDB
N/A - 0.5 (63 mins) - 1.3
Fernandes
0.2 - 0.1 (83 mins) - 0.2 (70 mins)
Martial
0.3 - 0.9 - 0.1 (78 mins)
Foden
0.1 - 0 (26 mins) - 0.1 (60 mins)
Salah
0 (82 mins) - 0.4 - 0.1
Ings
0.1 - 0 - 0.2
Jesus
0 (76 mins) - 0.5 (63 mins) - 0.3 (60 mins)

xA Points / Minutes played - last 3 games:

KDB - 5.4 / 153
Fernandes - 1.5 / 243
Martial - 3.9 / 258
Foden - 0.6 / 176
Salah - 1.5 / 262
Ings - 0.9 / 270
Jesus - 2.4 / 199

*3pts per assist

KDB compensates for his lack of goal threat but is that enough? Let's have a look...

xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes - last 3 games

KDB - 3.2
Fernandes - 3.15
Martial - 3.28
Foden - 2.86
Salah - 9.3
Ings - 2.3
Jesus - 5.79

Salah is the standout candidate, Jesus is not far behind but he gets 1 less point for every goal. Plus his minutes are less guaranteed.

Are the last 3 games enough? Let's have a look at the stats since the restart.

xG / xA:

KDB 2.46 / 3.83

Fernandes 3.52 / 1.56

Martial 2.98 / 1.85

Foden 1.97 / 0.83

Salah 4.81 / 1.35

Ings 3.02 / 0.79

Jesus 4.41 / 1.08

Let's take the minutes played into account.

xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes - Since the restart

KDB - 4.61
Fernandes - 3.52
Martial - 3.20
Foden - 3.53
Salah - 4.80
Ings - 2.07
Jesus - 3.64

KDB now looks like a viable option and Salah is brought back down to Earth. He still prevails with a 0.19 lead though.

How many points did they get in the reverse fixtures?

KDB - 17

Salah - 5

Ings - 1 (13 mins)

N/A:
Jesus
Fernandes
Martial
Foden

KDB smashed Watford last time round, can he do it again? He can if he gets the minutes. Will he get the minutes? Let's see...

Resting time vs Opposition:

KDB
Jesus
Foden
68 hours (could play extra time) vs 92 hours

Salah
A full week vs 72 hours (could play extra time)

Fernandes
Martial
70 hours (could play extra time) vs 5 days

Ings
64 hours vs 92

City have already booked their spot in the Champions League for next season, after their ban was rescinded. KDB is on for breaking the Assists Record, Jesus is City's only fit striking option and Foden could easily miss the FA Cup Semi-Final so Pep Roulette is a risk yet again.

Liverpool have plenty of rest, whilst Chelsea could be suffering from fatigue/rotation. They have a much weaker bench than City, but they will need to field a strong team in both the FA Cup Semi-Final and GW37. If it goes to extra time then Chelsea could be extremely sluggish.

United are in the same boat as Chelsea and unfortunately, we'll only know if it goes to extra time after today's deadline. That itself is a huge risk. Fatigue/Rotation could be defining factors of United's performance in GW37 too.

Ings and Southampton will have the least amount of rest. Their opponents will get an extra day off. 64 hours between two matches is a big ask. Tired legs really could effect movement off the ball, therefore limiting Southampton's goal threat in the full 90 minutes.

Let's look at the last 3 Home/Away points:

KDB A
8 - 1 (31 mins) - 3 (36 mins)

Fernandes H
3 (73 mins) - 15 - 5 (83 mins)

Martial H
21 - 14 - 13

Foden A
2 - 1 (31 mins) - 1 (26 mins)

Salah H
11 - 6 - 2

Ings A
13 - 9 - 2

Jesus A
1 (35 mins) - 1 - 14 (63 mins)

Last 3 Home/Away points per 90 minutes:

KDB
5.87

Fernandes
8.41

Martial
16

Foden
1.13

Salah
6.33

Ings
8

Jesus
7.83

Suddenly Martial and Ings are worth considering. It could be too little too late though, especially for Ings. Ultimately Salah, KDB, Fernandes and Jesus show consistency again though.

Let’s use the process of elimination and make a verdict.

Danny Ings pros:

- Bournemouth have 8.1xGC since the restart
- 6.9xG points last 3 games
- Will more than likely play 90 minutes
- An average of 8 PPG in his last 3 Away matches
- Golden boot motive

Danny Ings cons:

- Bournemouth have been decent in defence recently
- Bournemouth are fighting for survival
- Only 2.3xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes in his last 3 games
- Only 2.07xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart
- Just 64 hours of resting after Brighton

Phil Foden pros:

- Watford have been inept at the back
- Could easily miss the FA Cup match and obtain more minutes
- 3.53xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart is not bad

Phil Foden cons:

- Watford are fighting for relegation, whilst City are playing for pride
- Pep roulette
- Only 2.86xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes - last 3 games

Anthony Martial pros:

- OOP Midfielder in Forward role
- 3.28xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes in his last 3 games
- An average of 16 points per 90 minutes in his last 3 home matches
- West Ham might have nothing to play for, whilst United do

Anthony Martial cons:

- West Ham have not been too bad defensively
- 3.20xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart
- Risk of fatigue/rotation
- West Ham might be fighting for survival

Mohamed Salah pros:

- Chelsea have not been defending very well, with 8.6xGConceded since the restart
- A big 9.3xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes in his last 3 games
- 4.80xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart (the highest again)
- A return in his previous fixture
...

... *Continued*

Mohamed Salah pros:

- 1 week of rest, whilst Chelsea could be fatigued
- 6.33 points per 90 minutes in his last 3 home fixtures
- Will more than likely play 90 minutes
- Golden boot motive
- A whopping 19.5xG Points in his last 3 games

Mohamed Salah cons:

- Chelsea are fighting for the Champions League, whilst Liverpool are only playing for pride
- Chelsea's defensive assets have the potential to drastically improve

KDB pros:

- Watford have been inept at the back
- Top Assists record motive
- 5.4xA points in 153 minutes
- 4.61xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart
- 17 points in the Reverse Fixture
- 5.87 points per 90 minutes in his last 3 away matches

KDB cons:

- Watford are fighting for relegation, whilst City are playing for pride
- Pep roulette, he might be tired from the FA Cup Semi-Final
- No xG in 153 minutes

Bruno Fernandes pros:

- West Ham might have nothing to play for, whilst United do
- 7xG points in his last 3 matches
- 3.52xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart
- 8.41 points per 90 minutes in his last 3 home matches

Bruno Fernandes cons:

- West Ham have not been too bad defensively
- Risk of fatigue/rotation
- West Ham might be fighting for survival

Gabriel Jesus pros:

- Watford have been inept at the back
- A huge 12.8xG points in his last 3 matches
- 5.79xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes in his last 3 matches
- 3.64xG/A FPL Points per 90 minutes since the restart
- 7.83 points per 90 minutes in his last 3 away games
...

... *Continued*

Gabriel Jesus pros:

-City's only fit striking option

Gabriel Jesus cons:

- Watford are fighting for relegation, whilst City are playing for pride
- Pep roulette, he might be tired from the FA Cup Semi-Final

Weighing up all of the aforementioned options and wanting to take as little risk as possible.

My Captaincy pick this week is: Salah!

If you found this thread interesting/useful then please Retweet the Original Tweet at the top of the thread. 👆

Disclaimer: The list above is in no particular order