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Melbourne traffic is busier in the second lockdown compared to the first lockdown. Last week, weekdays were only down ~30% on February levels, compared to ~40% in the first lockdown (early April). Why the difference? Lets investigate.. [thread 1/5] #covid19australia
Okay, so school years 11 and 12 resumed (at school) last week, but Friday's traffic was busier than lockdown 1 during commuter peaks, school peaks, and interpeak. It seems plausible that more people have been going to work in lockdown 2. [2/5]
That said, last Monday's interpeak traffic was not much above April lockdown levels, but still significantly higher in the school and commuter peaks, again suggesting more people going to work [3/5]
Let's break it down geographically: the 10 postcodes that entered the second lockdown early have seen traffic return to April lockdown levels, whereas the rest of Melbourne is significantly busier. [4/5]
Let's map by site. When comparing Wednesday last week to the first two Wednesdays of April (lockdown 1), traffic volumes are much higher in the eastern and south-eastern suburbs. It looks like local infection numbers may be significantly influencing travel behaviour [5/5]
Inspired by the work of @SamJanda, I've taken a look at the simple relationship between current active cases per LGA and lockdown 2 traffic compared to lockdown 1 (note: data dates don't perfectly align). It appears people in LGAs with bigger outbreaks are less inclined to travel
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