Thread by @cfishman

Something is going on right now in the pandemic in the US that we've seen before.

In April & May, the White House decided to 'wish away' the pandemic.

Cases were dropping.

Trump wanted the economy opened 'Very, very quickly.'

(See story below from NYT)
nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/…

2/ On April 16, at the White House coronavirus briefing, Trump said:

'We must have a working economy. And we want to get it back. Very, very quickly. And that’s what’s going to happen.'

3/ The White House issued detailed, step-by-step guidelines for reopening. Almost no states followed them.

We got the curves below. Cases & deaths dropped in response to the stay-at-home orders.

Then plateaued.

As the sense of urgency & importance faded, the virus returned.

4/ When it comes to catching covid-19, most of the country today, July 19, is far more dangerous than it was on June 19, May 19, April 19.

That's true in dozens of states.

5/ Even at the point where states had tamped down new transmissions pretty far, the virus was still infecting enough people that the small embers were fanned into major spread with reopening.

We didn't wait for 14 days of falling cases.

6/ We didn't reopen with care, caution, with good conversation and good practices and consistent public health messages.

Yes, do some things you haven't — but still wear a mask. Still keep 6 feet of distance. Realize that the virus is just waiting for our carelessness.

7/ Reopening 'very, very quickly' not only didn't work, it has turned out to be dangerous.

Dangerous to health. Dangerous to the health care system, again.

Dangerous to the economy that Trump was so intent on reviving with vigor.

8/ Many scientific papers, many historians, many public health officials said over and over again:

You cannot have a healthy economy if you have a sick population, or a population that fears getting sick.

What's happening now?

9/ Put aside for the moment the state of the pandemic itself — cases soaring to almost insane levels. Deaths starting to rise again.

Now, the White House says, we must reopen schools.

Trump: 'Schools must open in the Fall.'

DeVos: 'Kids have got to get back to school.'

10/ The CDC issued guidelines for reopening schools.

Trump said:

'I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things.'

Trump ordered the guidelines loosened.

11/ We are, right now, replaying in real time about schools exactly the same 'policy' debate we had in April & May about the economy.

Trump simply wants the schools open.

His view is, Schools should open. Parents can get back to work. The economy can get going.

Enough already.

12/ But it won't work this time, any more than it worked with reopening the economy 'very, very quickly.'

We could have reopened schools safely — if we had planned to do that back in April & May.

A step-by-step plan, a clear goal, a rallying of Americans to that goal.

13/ Americans would have loved that, and understood it, and worked toward it.

Yes: Let's get kids back to school and college. Then we can work — either at home or in the office. Kids can go back to learning.

Tell us: What do we need to do to make that happen? We're in!

14/ And Step #1 would have been:

Contain the virus in your community. Crush the new-cases curve. Suffocate the virus to almost nothing.

Then, school can resume. College can resume. And yes, work and restaurants and other things can resume too.

Step #1: Contain the virus.

15/ No one in senior positions of power has thought ahead at any point in this pandemic.

You may be buying extra masks & toilet paper in anticipation of what might happen in Sept & Oct.

But no senior official said in May: We have 100 days to open schools. Here's how to do it.

16/ Now, the White House is insisting schools must reopen, with in-person classes 5 days a week. And threatening to withhold federal education funds from districts that decide that's too dangerous.

But there's no plan. Just as there was no plan to reopen the economy.

17/ No plan. Just insistence.

You can look at the curves of the spread of the virus — yes, in Arizona, California, Florida, Texas. The disease is way out of control.

But in many places getting less attention:

Alabama.
Alaska.
Arkansas.
Georgia.
Idaho.

Outbreaks at peak.
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18/ It's also at peak levels in...

Indiana.
Kansas.
Kentucky.
Louisiana.
Mississippi.
Missouri.
Montana.
Nevada.
New Mexico.
N. Carolina
N. Dakota.
Ohio.
Oklahoma.
Oregon.
S. Carolina.
Tennessee.
Utah.
Washington.
W. Virginia.
Wisconsin.
Wyoming.

30 states. Peak pandemic.

19/ Why would parents want to send their kids back to school in the midst of that?

Why would teachers leap to get back to a classroom, risking their lives?

As the battle plays out, remember this:

20/ Insisting that things return to normal against the patient virus accomplishes nothing.

We do know how to fight the virus & the spread & the pandemic.

We are stuck with this apparent 'Hobson's choice' — school or not? — because of indifference, incompetence, mismanagement.

21/ Insisting on reopening the economy in a cavalier 'it'll be okay' way didn't work — it got us surging disease from one side of the country to the other.

Insisting on reopening the schools, during that surge, not only won't work, it will make the surge yet harder to manage.

22/ And here comes the fall, when experts predicted a much worse version of the spring, if we didn't take care.

That prediction came when everyone thought summer would be a quiet period.

The fall.
Flu season.
Cold weather.

Have you read the plan for the fall? Link below.

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