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THIS is the bad data going into COVID totals: Oregon Health Authority includes in the "TOTAL" of "CASES", with a footnote, "presumed" cases of people presenting with "COVID-like symptoms" such as :cough, fever." SO ALL OREGON FEVERS ARE COUNTED AS "COVID."
2/ I am not advocating for higher or lower counts, only ACCURATE ones. Including ALL patients with cough or fever AND ALL THEIR CONTACTS, as Oregon Health Authority does, as "COVID", means that it is impossible to know whether or not to visit Oregon, how to advise loved ones.
3/ Read mindblowing fine print for Oregon COVID data: *
"Includes cases confirmed by diagnostic testing... presumptive cases. Presumptive cases are people without a positive diagnostic test who have COVID-19-like symptoms and had close contact with a laboratory confirmed case..
4/ Antibody test results are not included in our data.". LET ME SAY THAT AGAIN. Sorry for shouty caps, this is important. Oregon is including in "COVID totals", "premptive cases" who are defined as folks WITHOUT A TEST OF ANY KIND for COVID but who exhibit "COVID-19-like symptoms
5/ Defined as cough or fever. This methodology would dramatically OVERCOUNT non-COVID cases of folks with well just cough, fever. The total specifically EXCLUDES any data from antibody testing. Which would dramatically UNDERCOUNT actual confirmed cases of COVID. Get the math?
6/ Oregon is making national news for spikes in COVID cases and loved ones there of mine are terrified. But if you look at HOW these data have been compiled (since how recently?) the method used - including as "TOTAL CASES", anyone with cough or fever in Oregon, and EXCLUDING any
7/actual antibody tests, guarantees a number that is a/inaccurate and b/likely to be much too high, unless there are more positive COVID tests in Oregon than people with cough or fever from every cause, in which case the "TOTAL COVID" numbers are MUCH TOO LOW. Either way, these
8/Methods of totalling "COVID totals" make zero methodological sense. SWhy count as "presumed COVID", every SINGLE cough and fever in Oregon, and yet EXCLUDE actual confirmed COVID from actual antibody tests? Unless you wish for whatever reason to skew the data. Please weigh in..
9/Here, pure statisticians. But really: shame, shame, shame on every news outlet who simply reproduced the "weekly press release" that Oregon is releasing, based on these super-appallingly-flawed numbers, without looking at the data or methodology which is RIGHT THERE, or asking
10/on what basis press releases out of Oregon gov't, are claiming numbers leading to a rash of headlines about spikes in Oregon. Spike could be even higher or much lower; we simply cannot know from these hideously flawed numbers. Shame, national, local media. You know who u r.
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