1/ Finally got around to listening to @TESLAcharts's excellent pod with @nikolatrevor. I'll give broad-brush commentary; others like @BonaireVolt have probed specifics.
1a/ On BEV vs FCEV @JigarShahDC put it best on @TheEnergyGang (22-25 minute mark)
"The use of math all the time to say #fuelcells are worse than batteries literally makes no sense. This is not about round-trip efficiency..."
FRAME THIS STATEMENT! greentechmedia.com/articles/read/…
"The use of math all the time to say #fuelcells are worse than batteries literally makes no sense. This is not about round-trip efficiency..."
FRAME THIS STATEMENT! greentechmedia.com/articles/read/…
2/ Shah explains it's about culture change. Milton speaks from the heart as a guy who dropped out of college, and had that taunt lobbed at him a lot. Seriously, WHO BETTER TO WIN OVER TRUCKERS?? Bring an I-know-better MBA or MSc attitude in and you'll be tossed to the curb.
2b/ Now, Shah was speaking in reference to trucking. He doesn't see #hydrogen for passenger vehicles. Absolute respect for him, but I do see a niche, based on the fundamental difference between commodity and consumer goods. 👇
2c/ BEV is absolutely the future of LDV, but it'll be easier to hit 90% or 95% and let FC's complete the pincer on ICE, than to push uphill for 99% and 100.0%. Even that volume will drive HDV FC costs down mightily.
(Yes, I loathe Hersey chocolate.)
(Yes, I loathe Hersey chocolate.)
3/ If your undergrad years (which you look back fondly on) were a drunken haze of drug, masturbation and sex jokes, and wishing you could stick it to The Man, you live vicariously through Elon Musk's tweets. He's the college male STEM incel's champion -- and no one else's.
4/ @georgia_orwell_ noted @nikolamotor has been a match-maker between siloed experts. Profoundly true. Milton struggles with precise terminology, but isn't threatened by others with more expertise. Musk is. That's The Realization™ h/t TC.
5/ As an engineer, I get annoyed by imprecise terminology, but it's more forgivable from someone not claiming technical credentials, who defers to others in deep-dives. Ask my former managers, LOL. (NB - still worth getting the terminology correct, Trevor.)
6/ One big clarification. It doesn't cost $2 billion to design a new fuel cell stack. An entirely new vehicle / vehicle platform? Sure. For a stack? Knock 1-2 zeroes off, depending on manufacturing capex req's.
7/ Finally, it's hard to beat 🔋 if you can recharge trucks overnight (e.g. drayage). But if you believe in an autonomous future a) listen to @TheAutonocast @Tweetermeyer and b) they'll work 24x7 won't they?
end/ An autonomous trucking future of 24x7 class-8 trucks will favour FC's for the same reason that three-shift distribution centres ($AMZN, $WMT) favour fuel cell forklifts. The productivity / uptime benefit will far outweigh any fuel / opex premium.
