I wanna say a little bit about math. Pandemic math, specifically.
I hear a lot of people saying that the risk of dying from COVID-19, especially when young & healthy, is *tiny*, often to justify opening universities. But a small *percentage* risk is not the only factor. (1/4)
I hear a lot of people saying that the risk of dying from COVID-19, especially when young & healthy, is *tiny*, often to justify opening universities. But a small *percentage* risk is not the only factor. (1/4)
The key thing is the difference between percent and number. When the NUMBER of people infected is low, a low risk of death means *few deaths*. But when the NUMBER of people is high, even a small PERCENTAGE is a lot of deaths. (2/4)
Let's say the disease kills 0.01% of college-age people. (It might be a bit more than that.) If the pandemic is out of control, the spread within colleges means a LOT of the 20 million college students in the US could get the disease.
0.01% of 20 million is 2,000 people. (3/4)
0.01% of 20 million is 2,000 people. (3/4)
Any death is a tragedy. More deaths = more tragedy. A low RISK of death doesn't mean you can let a disease spread without compounding tragedy upon tragedy. One person playing Russian roulette is likely to live (83% chance!); when everyone joins in, a lot of people will die. (4/4)
