Latest weekly report on excess deaths in South Africa: now estimated at 17,090 since early May.
Note: only a fraction of these deaths are directly due to COVID. Please read the caveats and explanations here:
samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Note: only a fraction of these deaths are directly due to COVID. Please read the caveats and explanations here:
samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
From the report: "Although the bulk of these estimates of the ‘excess deaths’ are likely to be due to COVID-19 and related causes, an unknown proportion may be due other natural causes associated with a relaxing of lockdown."
Summary of trends: "Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are experiencing an excess number of natural deaths. The sharp increase noted in the previous report in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape have continued."
Sharp increase in estimated excess deaths in Gauteng province:
Here is the trend in excess deaths in Western Cape province. As noted by the Western Cape premier some weeks ago, the mortality trend in the province is shaped more like Table Mountain, rather than a classic sharp peak.
Just to clarify my wording here: when I say "a fraction", I'm simply saying that not all of the excess deaths are directly due to COVID. The fraction could still be quite large, but less than 100%.
