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Wes Pegden Profile picture
@WesPegden
Jul 23, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
@PIH #PIHchat

Hi,
I'm interested in your perspective in the occupational risk studies from Sweden, which showed that even in the presence of significant community transmission, teachers were not at elevated risk of infection.

(Schools were open at full capacity for children under 16, with distance learning for 16+.)

Also, one more question:
Are you familiar with any estimates of the long-term public health costs (e.g., in mortality) from long-term (e.g. 1 year or more) school closures?

Thanks!!
(...)
Oh one more thought, in case it helps get the word out:

It would be great to get data from Israel on the relative infection risk to teachers based on the age-group of children being taught. Are 12th grade teachers at much higher risk than 9th grade? etc. #PIHchat

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More from @WesPegden

Wes Pegden Profile picture
Sep 15, 2022
Our statistical re-analysis of the Bangladesh mask trial data with @ChikinaLab and @beenwrekt has been published in Trials (@MedicalEvidence).

1/4
trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
The Bangladesh trial was a big lift and to date the only cluster randomized trial of masks to generate any publicly available data. Another pre-registered trial in Bangladesh by the same authors was suspended, and a pre-registered trial in Guinnea-Bissau never reported.
2/4
This unfortunately leaves us reading the tea leaves in this one completed study.

This paper is our read of the tea leaves.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Wes Pegden Profile picture
May 16, 2022
The most pressing questions about the COVID pandemic don't come in the form "can X happen?".

I was surprised at how little quantitative information this article contains, especially when we actually do have high quality data on reinfections.

1/
The ONS survey tracks reinfections through surveillance testing among its random sample of participants. Even though the recent Omicron waves, the observed reinfection rate has been 1 per thousand or so days.

2/
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
These rates are no guarantee of the future, but science journalism should present the best data have, rather than relying on anecdotes.

In lieu of data like this, the article instead leans heavily on the feelings shared by expert commentators (every one of whom is on Twitter).3/
Read 8 tweets
Wes Pegden Profile picture
Feb 4, 2022
As a growing number of people criticize continued restrictions on children and young people, the responses hurdled back are not defenses of still concealing faces from weeks-old infants or making 6 year olds eat lunch silently and wear masks while they learn to read, but this:
1/
Some are pure-style assertions that "these people are bad, dying is bad, COVID is not over, I am on the other team".

Others have gone full-blown connect-the-dots conspiracy, trying to uncover the mystery of why people care about young people's day-to-day experiences.
2/6
What I have not seen from many in the past months is a full-throated defense of the specific policies that children (and babies) are being been subjected to.

Who's for it!? Anyone? Or are we all against it, but sure that some of us are bad people against it in the wrong way?
3/6
Read 9 tweets
Wes Pegden Profile picture
Feb 3, 2022
The pre-registration for the next phase of the Bangladesh mask trial (@Jabaluck etc) has been posted.

The good: it will probe a bias-resistant endpoint that should be much less dependent on subjective survey responses.

Two important criticisms follow:1/8
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05…
1) The new phase of the trial still doesn't have any placebo intervention (like, say, education only).

One of the things our re-analysis of their previous study showed is that staff and participants were subject to big differences in study behavior.
2/8
 arxiv.org/abs/2112.01296
The study found much larger effects on physical distancing than on COVID; in general, it seems likely that intervention villages are considerably more "COVID aware".

If we really care whether masks are actually helping, comparing, masks+education to education would make sense!
/
Read 8 tweets
Wes Pegden Profile picture
Feb 1, 2022
In the pandemic's 1st year, failing to focus resources and attention on the oldest+most vulnerable in society meant young people faced excessive restrictions that were senseless from a public health perspective.

In the 2nd year, it meant inordinate levels of preventable death.
Commentators on here spend a lot of time talking about low-stakes controversial policies whose only merit is that they scratch a political itch.

Meanwhile the actual failure to vax and boost the oldest (and even LTC) populations goes largely unmentioned, except by "contrarians".
From the CDC:
cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/l…

Vaccination rate among LTC residents: 87%
Booster rate *among vaccinated* LTC residents: leveling off at 67%

42% of LTC residents have fewer than 3 doses.

Look at the coverage maps.

A lot of "COVID-focused" states have <75% booster rates. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Wes Pegden Profile picture
Feb 1, 2022
This article is remarkable.

As it discusses, the trials for a 2 dose vaccine in 6 mos-5 year olds failed. But now the FDA seems keen to just grant emergency use authorization anyways, while data from trials of a 3-dose regimen are still a ways out.

1/
washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01…
The next thing to watch for will be mandates for under 5's, for a vaccine under emergency use authorization in a low risk population whose only trial failed.

Meanwhile the US has some of the lowest vaccination and booster rates among the most vulnerable populations.

2/
I think it's a mistake to miss the connection between these.

We have confused people about risk, needlessly politicized our response, and tried to distract from crucial policy failures among high risk groups with policies aimed at children and young people.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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