1/ Did you know that Arthur C. Clarke (2001: A space Odyssey) wrote about science possibility in addition to science fiction?
His book Profiles of the Future, from 1962, is an amazing view of possibilities still on the table and how to make good predictions.
BOOK REPORT THREAD
His book Profiles of the Future, from 1962, is an amazing view of possibilities still on the table and how to make good predictions.
BOOK REPORT THREAD
2/ Let's bring back this attitude!
Also fascinating that the term "fantastic" used to imply "like a fantasy!" more than "great!"
Also fascinating that the term "fantastic" used to imply "like a fantasy!" more than "great!"
3/ Clarke divides failed predictions about the future into "Failures of Nerve" and "Failures of Imagination."
I like it as a framework. Let's encourage more of both!
I like it as a framework. Let's encourage more of both!
"It's impossible to X" generally falls into "failure of imagination."
5/ Can we please start calling people "sensation-mongers?"
6/ Ta da!
7/ This is a little 🤯. It's sobering to consider simultaneously that I think he is serious here and the age distribution in academia.
8/ 13th century! It's a good illustration that predictions can be pretty spot on, but need more ingredients than eventual correctness to be useful.
9/ Another cool framework: expected and unexpected concepts.
Note how the expected spans things that seem mundane, things that seem right around the corner, and things that seem absurd now but in the past seemed right around the corner.
Note how the expected spans things that seem mundane, things that seem right around the corner, and things that seem absurd now but in the past seemed right around the corner.
10/ Let's go on an adventure.
11/ At first glance, weather control seems like a crazy dream from the past. But on closer inspection - we *can* put domes over cities, we just haven't.
12/ Screw autonomous cars, I want a microelephant.
13/ Clarke predicts 2020 part 1.
Always a good reminder of how cyclic things can be
Always a good reminder of how cyclic things can be
14/ We don't spend enough time talking about how new materials are at the heart of almost every paradigm-shifting technology
15/ Autonomous shipping submarines anyone? Things algorithms don't need: oxygen.
16/ Alternately, what happened to Ground Effect Machines?
17/ Unfortunately, I think the upshot here is that if prominent business leaders are confident that something will happen, you shouldn't update your priors too much.
18/ I like the idea of overpowering gravity by brute force. The idea of humans conquering nature has become gauche :-/
19/ A good lesson that trends that seem monotonic can start going down again.
20/ "the so-called Space Shuttle." It's interesting to see how much the patterns he was matching against made sense.
21/ Clarke is the realist here. Those people who think we'll be able to go around the world in less than eighty minutes on the other hand ...
22/ Clarke predicts 2020 Part 2.
23/ The deep concern about overpopulation as one of the biggest threats is such a constant theme in books from this era.
24/ I love this attitude: "we'll probably never control time, but *if we were to do it* here is probably how it would work"
25/ Do people even think this way anymore? I realize that there are many advantages to decentralization, but what does that leave on the table?
26/ Again, this mindset!
27/ Everybody wonders where to get Elon Musk type ideas ... *whispers* read this boooooook
28/ Rules for life.
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31/ Clarke predicts 2020, part 3. (Except for the cigars.)
32/ Clarke predicts 2020, part 4
33/ Clarke on Tools for Thought (and subtweeting Vannevar Bush?)
34/ Clarke, pre-echoing the sentiments of biohackers by decades.
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end/ Let's make it happen.
