Thread by @JenniferMerode

More than four years after the UK voted to leave the EU, talks on a future relationship are deadlocked. But what if there had been a book on how to negotiate Brexit?

As it happens, it was in front of me all time - thread.

In 2015 pro-leave lobby group Business for Britain published Change, or Go: How Britain would gain influence and prosper outside an unreformed EU.

is a 1000+ page manifesto for Brexit that set out a plan for David Cameron’s renegotiation and the implications of leaving the EU.

Britain was in “a win-win situation” according to then Business for Britain chief exec Matthew Elliott who went on to run Vote Leave.

So how does it hold up?

Change or Go pays next to no attention to issues that became central to the withdrawal agreement.
UK/Irish relations scarcely get a mention.
Ireland appears once in the index, the same number of times as NYT columnist Paul Krugman.

Change or Go makes fleeting mention of the Brexit financial settlement - UK to pay “fair share of liabilities” but is due “a share of the EU assets”.

The UK settled its liabilities in the WA, but did not get back a share of EU assets, buildings etc.

Change or Go on citizens’ rights? Don’t worry.

Rights to live and work would be fixed under “international ‘grandfather rights’. Not a word on pensions, healthcare, education, family reunion etc.

That's now how it worked out either.

Change or Go thought it was possible, although not guaranteed, that the EU would agree to negotiate a new trading relationship before the triggering of Article 50.

It looks so easy - here is the flow chart.

The EU did not open talks before A50 trigger.

Change or Go was relaxed about future trading relationship, assuring readers UK could enjoy “a common market relationship with EU even if it did not sign a special deal after exit”.

What ever happened to this mysterious common market relationship option... It didn't exist.

And anyway, “ a WTO trading relationship is guaranteed and is much more attractive than the status quo”.

Best not to run the numbers on this.

Change or Go was also relaxed about the UK losing the benefits of EU trade deals, because “the EU underperforms at managing trade policy”. It doesn’t have a trade deal with the US and China. Anyway it is “highly likely” EU FTAs “could be photocopied”.

Change or Go concluded that “while the balance of interest is not overwhelming, Britain does have considerable leverage”, because of the EU trade surplus in goods and because the EU would not be able to replace the UK with a similar power...

... So Change or Go informs readers with a straight face that Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq are “unlikely to qualify” for EU membership and compensate for the loss of the UK.

Tufton Street castles in the air.

Change or Go assumed the Swiss model (patchwork bilateral deals) was serious option.

It obsesses on tariffs, but pays scant attention to non-tariff barriers. In revealing language it saw limits to the EU’s ability “to penalise Britain” and inflict “malicious harm”.

Change or Go sees the EU as simultaneously powerless, but draconian. The EU is “increasingly not at the top of the food chain when it comes to the formulation of the regulations it then imposes on Britain”. It mistakenly claims the UK has never been able to block any EU law.

Change or Go offers an army of straw men. Don’t worry, leaving the EU will not affect the NHS, the Queen, the BBC, the right to vote in local and national elections or gambling. But it means UK can avoid EU [non-existent] plans for pan-European sports teams.

Change or Go concludes - without any justification - that leaving the EU will not affect
*Easy transport links for firms and citizens: “there would be no significant disruption or inconvenience for UK firms or passengers”.
And....

*No roaming charges guaranteed “this is now a legacy decision and will not be affected by the UK leaving”.
*UK travellers can keep the EHIC insurance card when visiting the EU.
Wrong, wrong and wrong. Only a few examples.

Change or Go did not foresee the Kent lorry parks or requirement for 50,000 customs agents (for comparison 33,000 work at the European commission).

Change or Go did not foresee:
*Irish border issue or possibility of NI special status.
*Risks of Brexit vote dividing UK regions and fuelling political conflict over policy. It argued an Out vote would strengthen the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and NI Assembly.

Change or Go was concerned about UK being outvoted on economic and financial rules in the EU council of ministers by eurozone countries. That was a genuine issue - and addressed in Cameron’s renegotiation- regarded by gov as the most important gain.

Change or Go is full of the main Brexit anthems: ‘they need us more than we need them’ , ‘we hold all the cards’, myopia about Ireland, faith in keeping the bits of the EU the UK liked and juncking the rest.

Change or Go was produced by an all-male secretariat of five and credits five outside experts who work on financial services. It was overseen by an editorial board that included Patisserie Valerie Luke Johnson, fund manager Helena Morrissey and libertarian peer Matt Ridley

As far as I can tell no one who had direct experience of working on or for the EU was involved or consulted. Nor any EU trade partners.

The back cover says it all. The UK at the centre of the world. The Republic of Ireland has mysteriously vanished. The continent is characterised by high unemployment, farm subsidies, an unelected bureaucracy - but at least they sell us wine.
A first draft of Global Britain.

Now we have hindsight.

Everyone knows much more about how the EU works, including me.

Given what was known (and possible to find out) in 2015, it's staggering how far this case for Brexit rested on cherry-picked data, wishful assumptions and group think.

Ends

Important detail .....one of the members of the Change or Go secretariat was Oliver Lewis, later Vote Leave research director and now.... one of David Frost's deputy negotiators.

I hope one day he will explain how Business for Britain got it so wrong.

H/t anonymous