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Some personal experience with the Lebanese financial crisis. In 2001 (20 yrs ago) I was involved in an effort to acquire a stake in Bank Saradar in Lebanon. After our due diligence we found that the bank had invested more than its capital in Lebanese govt. debt.
I then told the CEO "your bank is technically bankrupt since this debt will never be repaid". (Govt. debt then was about $30 billion). He smiled and told me all Lebanese Banks are in this same situation.
I then went to see the late PM Rafik Hariri (father not son) and asked "how will this govt. debt ever be repaid". He said "I expect it will be paid down as part of an overall regional peace settlement".
He mentioned Mubarak's Egypt as an example when tens of billions of $ of debt had been forgiven by the US and allies as a reward for supporting the liberation of Kuwait in 1990.
Now Hariri was a great/exceptional man, but here he would be proven wrong. This was 20 years ago yet the debt continued to grow + IMF, Rating Agencies, Auditors, Investment Banks all either had their eye off the ball or were complicit in making money and stayed silent
The Ponzi scheme followed as Central Bank began paying higher+higher rates to encourage banks to suck money into Lebanon to keep this scam going. Nobody raised an eyebrow even though banks paying above market rates for $ deposits is the most basic red flag in finance
Today debt is $100 billion when 20 years ago at $30b it was seen as being beyond state's capacity to repay from its own resources.
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