Messi's "walking" and how Barça use it to hold territory in enemy territory.
[A Thread]
#PausaAnalysis
[A Thread]
#PausaAnalysis
In December of 2017, FC Barcelona beat Real Madrid 3-0. Despite scoring and assisting, Messi hogged the headlines for a slightly different reason. It was reported that the Argentine had walked 83% of the five miles he'd covered during the game.
This was nothing new. Reports of a lazy Messi have persisted throughout his career, and usually gain traction after big Champions League defeats.
And there is some truth to this. Messi consistently covers less ground than other attackers with similar output.
And there is some truth to this. Messi consistently covers less ground than other attackers with similar output.
Here is a comparison of Leo's goals+assists per 90 in this season's Champions League vs Distance covered p90.
Over the years, however, research has trickled in and has shown that Messi's walking is not necessarily an exercise in futility. On the contrary, his languid pace seems intentional.
This goes against common football intuition, yes, but it does reveal some interesting things.
This goes against common football intuition, yes, but it does reveal some interesting things.
In 2018, Javier Fernandez, a data scientist at Barça, teamed up with analysts from the the NBA and constructed a positional value model.
This model looked at how a player's movement creates space for others, and whether that goal is achieved passively or actively.
This model looked at how a player's movement creates space for others, and whether that goal is achieved passively or actively.
Active movement entails running into open space, whereas passive movement is more about holding space in "high value" areas even when the play shifts elsewhere.
To determine what "high value" means, Fernandez & Co decided to use the behaviour of the defending team as a yardstick. Defenders usually look to block space that is dangerous relative to the position of the ball, and therefore "high value" can mean different things.
The research found that in the sample size used (January 2017) Barça's principle space creators were Sergio Busquets, Andrés Iniesta and Leo Messi.
Both Busquets and Iniesta acquired space passively about 50% or less of their total.
Both Busquets and Iniesta acquired space passively about 50% or less of their total.
Messi, on the other hand, was creating space passively nearly 66% of the time! His walking was allowing Barça to keep territory in valuable space.
Here is an example, that was created by the team. Look at how Messi's stationary placement allows Barça room on the right.
Here is an example, that was created by the team. Look at how Messi's stationary placement allows Barça room on the right.
Of course it is tough to say whether or not this is deliberately done. It could be instinctual.
Is the sample size small? Perhaps. But this reasearch is only indicative of a trend that has been observed by many. Messi's lethargy, whether intentional or not, has value.
Is the sample size small? Perhaps. But this reasearch is only indicative of a trend that has been observed by many. Messi's lethargy, whether intentional or not, has value.
At this point, however, Barça seemed to have decided that Messi's lethargy needs some sort of counterbalance. The signing of Arturo Vidal was reportedly aimed at meeting this requirement. He was to be "Messi's legs".
What the club needs to decide now is what they do when Messi's walking is no longer a net positive.
It's a question that needs answering, and perhaps soon. At 33, Messi isn't getting any younger. The ambling will only increase.
It's a question that needs answering, and perhaps soon. At 33, Messi isn't getting any younger. The ambling will only increase.
