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Cameron Joseph Profile picture
@cam_joseph
Jul 26, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Happy 100 days until the election. @realDonaldTrump has been consistently behind by a wide margin for months as covid drags him down, and Republicans are growing even more worried about the damage he could do to them down-ballot. vice.com/en_us/article/…
Things are pretty bad,” said one GOP strategist involved in a number of down-ticket races. “If Trump doesn’t turn things around we’ve got real problems.”

Trump is far behind in public/private polls in MI (where he's not even on air with his recent ad buy!), PA, WI. Needs one.
Trump also trails consistently in AZ/FL, down slightly in NC, in a dead heat in IA/OH/TX/GA. Proof his campaign is worried: they're spending on ads in all these states. This is putting the Senate, once a stretch for Dems, easily in reach.
Biggest surprise in my reporting: both Dems and R's tell me the @JohnCornyn race is a lot closer than public polling. If Trump loses Texas, Cornyn is in real trouble too.
This could easily be the nadir for Trump, and the GOP could bounce back! But things could just as easily get worse.

One GOP strategist: "It’s a whole shit sandwich and we all have to take a bite."

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More from @cam_joseph

Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Nov 3, 2023
I spent the last few months trying to get my head around Tommy Tuberville for @RollingStone. Talked to him multiple times, chatted with former players and a bunch of senators.

Very few are happy with him right now.

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Many Black former players struggle to square his racially charged comments with the coach they knew.

Deuce McAllister: "Is this truly a front? Or was this who you were the past 20, 30, 40 years?"

Adlai Trone: "I know who the coach was, but I don’t know who the senator is."
And as we saw on the Senate floor this week, many of Tuberville's GOP colleagues are fed up with him. This has been building for months.

@SenDanSullivan: “Xi Jinping is watching this right now...He’s loving this. So is Putin. They’re loving this! How dumb can we be, man?”
Read 4 tweets
Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Mar 27, 2023
The Claremont Institute's leaders did more to normalize Trump on the right—then help his 2020 coup efforts—than any other think tank.

But now many of them are embracing DeSantis. And he's returning the favor.

It says a lot about his worldview.

vice.com/en/article/y3w…
Claremont recently opened its first state-based office in its history in FL, and DeSantis rolled out the red carpet.

He's involved them in his hostile takeover of New College, his push to end DEI programs and a K-12 civics program.

They're involved in his nascent campaign too.
“On a whole range of issues where wokeness is a threat he has risen to the occasion—rhetorically, but he’s also trying to do something about it legislatively," Claremont Institute senior fellow Charles Kesler, who DeSantis appointed at New College, told me.
Read 7 tweets
Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Jan 25, 2023
This week's election for RNC chair will likely feature something we haven't seen in some time:

Mike Lindell says he'll admit election defeat.

"Of course I would accept it," he told me. "There’s no machines involved."

vice.com/en/article/m7g…
Lindell has exactly one public supporter at the RNC out of 168 voting members.

I asked him who else is backing him.

“I wouldn’t tell you that in a million years. What, so you could go attack them? I’m not stupid. You guys must really think I’m dumb."
His campaign is drawing eyerolls from nearly all of the other RNC members.

@IowaGOP Chairman @kaufmannGOP (who backs McDaniel) called it a "pseudo-campaign."

“His candidacy for the RNC shows he doesn’t know how to campaign for an office. Do you see the irony here?"
Read 4 tweets
Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Nov 7, 2022
Get ready for a long, ugly election week(s).

Trump and his allies have spent two-plus years plotting to turn states with slower vote counts into scenes of chaotic protest, last-minute lawsuits and outright rejections of the democratic process.

vice.com/en/article/v7v…
Former DOJ Voting Rights attorney @beckerdavidj:

“I'm very concerned about the possibility of violence in the post-election period incited by losing candidates."
The two swing states where conditions are most ripe for chaos:
Arizona (mail-heavy state, vigilante voter intimidation, a slate of election-denying candidates)
Pennsylvania (slow mail ballot counting caused by intentional GOP intransigence, focus from Trump folks)
Read 8 tweets
Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Sep 15, 2022
Blake Masters explicitly called to fire all the U.S. military generals at least seven times over a span of eight months.

“I would love to see all the generals get fired. You take the most conservative colonels, you promote them to general."

vice.com/en/article/dy7…
9/22: "You probably want to fire most or all the generals and replace them with apolitical colonels, who will probably have conservative politics."

2/22: "It means purging the military of the left-wing generals..There's a lot of center-right or apolitical colonels"
Masters even cut a campaign video where he proclaimed "our military leadership is totally incompetent," which Mark Kelly already has in ads.

But this goes far deeper than just dissing the generals.
Read 4 tweets
Cameron Joseph Profile picture
Sep 7, 2022
I took a deep dive into Toni Shuppe, a top Doug Mastriano ally who's rumored to be his pick to run Pennsylvania's election system.

She's repeatedly pushed QAnon-linked conspiracy theories and credits her political awakening to a wild QAnon video.

vice.com/en/article/jgp…
Shuppe in her own words:

“After I pulled an all nighter watching The Fall of the Cabal, I was wrecked. Between the compelling evidence indicating that the migrant caravan in 2018 was totally staged, to the bone chilling saga of Pizzagate..."
"..., to the idea that JFK Jr. could still be alive (which I believe is completely false), my world was rocked."

Shuppe repeatedly used the QAnon hashtag WWG1WGA and referenced "the storm," and seemed particularly alarmed by pedophilia conspiracies (Pizzagate/Wayfair).
Read 5 tweets

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