Here is my basic feeling on the Three Gorges Dam situation that's may or may not shortly turn into a world-historic catastrophe:
B/c of supply chain issues & other potential conflict/uncoupling w/ China, my attitude was already "buy Chinese stuff while it's still in stock."
B/c of supply chain issues & other potential conflict/uncoupling w/ China, my attitude was already "buy Chinese stuff while it's still in stock."
In other words, I add the potential dam catastrophe to "potential conflict in the SCS" & "ongoing, possibly worsening supply chain problems" on the pile of reasons we did already all our shopping for durable goods last month & are prepared for everything to be out of stock.
If none of those things worsen & the supply chain normalizes, then I lost some time value of money (& money value of time to the planning involved) for doing our back-to-school & other shopping early. That's an acceptable risk for me.
Re: supply chain, I wrote in this post (theprepared.com/blog/product-s…) that I didn't expect the issues to get worse. I'd like to revise that, slightly. To the extent that US demand drains down inventory faster than constricted shipping channels can refill it, it will indeed get worse.
In other words, I think a lot of the stock we've been seeing on shelves for things was already in the channel, & we've draining that channel right now & it's not getting refilled very quickly. So in different pockets of retail, things will disappear & take a LONG time to restock.
To the extent that food prices are set on a global market, this catastrophe will also cause a spike in food prices that will fuel another global wave of unrest. To hedge that, I'd continue to build up food stockpiles, plant a garden, buy chickens, & whatever else you manage.
You may also want to look into hardening your dwelling, & taking other precautions around physical protection related to the Great Jankification (i.e. a slow-motion downgrade from first-world status) we're currently undergoing. theprepared.com/homestead/guid…
I guess my main points tho re: the dam are this: even before this you should have already been pretty worried about your ability to go into a store (or pharmacy) & get stuff that depends on China in some way. You should ALSO be worried enough re: food supplies to take precautions
The dam news just amps up supply chain & food supply worries, plus it adds a major element of "pray for the Chinese people" to an already grim, precarious supply chain picture.
This thread is le wow:
