Thread by @davidminpdx

1. Once again, the New York Times Metro section – as part of a long history of crude, sensational journalism – publishes a blatant falsehood in order to stoke and exaggerate crime fears. nytimes.com/2020/07/27/nyr…

2. The NYPD does not separate data into “violent” and “non-violent” categories, but if one looks at the data they do provide, several different ways, it’s clear that that statement (which is also in the sub-headline) is false.

3. If one looks at the seven major felony offenses – murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny, & GL auto, crime is **DOWN** in NYC this year.

I know that’s not what the press is telling you, but it’s right there on the NYPD website. www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/do…

4. And not only are those seven major felony offenses *lower this year than last year, but they are lower than any year since 2000 – which is as far back as I can find data. Likely it’s lower than any year in many decades. Again the data is right here. www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/do…

5. So just to clarify, if you look at the seven major felony offenses, not only is what the New York Times said in its article false, IT’S THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE TRUTH. They said it was the highest in decades, in fact it is the lowest. cc: @migold @AshleyAtTimes

6. Ok, but what if you don’t want to use “seven major felony offenses” as a proxy for “violent crimes.” Ok. Instead let’s look solely at the four violent offenses that the FBI counts in its UCR index of violent crimes – murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

7. Again you get the same result. If you look at murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault, those, in aggregate, are *DOWN* this year in NYC, not up. Again, its right there, clear as day on the NYPD’s website. www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/do…

8. Since last year was one of the two or three lowest for those core violent crimes since 2000 & since those offenses are down still further this year, it follows that by this standard FBI measure, 2020 is one of the *LEAST* violent in NYC in decades. www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/do…

9. Again, the data I have extends back only to 2000. But if you dig back further, the violent crime data that you’ll find for the 1990s will be far higher. So based on this common measure – the FBI UCR – 2020 is the LEAST violent year in NYC for at least 30+ years.

10. Now keep in mind, this data is not just NOT what the @NYTMetro reported, IT IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT @NYTMetro reported. @NYTMetro said this year represents a spike in violence “unlike anything seen in decades,” when in reality violence is the lowest its been in decades.

11. In other words, @NYTMetro is not just wrong, it is spectacularly wrong.

12. Ok but what if the @NYTMetro said “violence,” but really what they meant was “homicide.” Ok. Let’s take a look at that.

13. If one decides to ignore the FBI UCR definition of violence and instead just single out homicides, at least looked at this way, crime is up this year. Good so far.

14. And the increase in homicides is significant. They are up 24%. Sounds bad. And it is. Every homicide, every year is a tragedy. Not in any way trying to minimize that. Homicides are bad.

15. And we’ll just ignore that every criminologist would say that looking at partial year, year-over-year crime statistics is an incredibly reckless stupid thing to do. We’ll let that go.
@NYTMetro doing something that crime experts say is reckless is par for the course.

16. If one extrapolates partial year results of a 24% increase over a full year, NYC would end the year with ~396 homicides. That’s last year’s 319 homicides increased by 24%.

17. Looked at this way, does the @NYTMetro’s article about a “spike in violence unlike anything NYC has seen in decades” hold up? Nope. Not even close.

18. Yes, if current trends hold and NYC ends the year with 396 homicides that would be a significant increase compared to last year. But as recently as 2012 NYC had 419 homicides. As it turns out, 419 is > 396.

19. And it’s not just 2012.

NYC homicides:
2011 – 515
2010 – 536
2009 – 471
2008 – 523
2007 – 496
2006 – 596
2005 – 539
2004 – 570
2003 – 597
2002 – 587
2001 – 649
2000 – 673
www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/do…

20. NYC homicides:
1999 – 671
1998 – 633
1997 – 770
1996 – 983
1995 – 1177
1994 – 1561
1993 – 1946
1992 – 1995
1991 – 2154
1990 – 2245
1989 – 1905
1988 – 1896
1987 – 1672
1986 – 1582
1985 – 1384
1984 – 1450
1983 – 1622
1982 – 1668
1981 – 1826
1980 – 1814

21. NYC homicides:
1979 – 1733
1978 – 1504
1977 – 1557
1976 – 1622
1975 – 1645
1974 – 1554
1973 – 1680
1972 – 1691
1971 – 1466
1970 – 1117

That’s 50 years. I think you get the idea.

22. Suffice it to say, while homicides are up this year, to say that NYC has not seen a spike in homicides like this in decades is just false. In fact, this year would be the 8th *lowest year of the past 50 years. And as recently as 2012 homicides were higher.

23. And it’s not just that those other 42 out of 50 years were higher. Many of those years were much, much higher. Many of those years were twice as high as this year. Many were 3-4-5 even 6x as high. Astronomically higher. Incomprehensibly higher.

24. Why do I care? Why do I spend all this time pointing out that this piece in the @NYTMetro section is so bad? I’ve watched the @NYTMetro for years and they do this over and over and over again. They constantly find new and creative ways to say crime is up – even when its down.

25. I’ve pointed out the ways the @NYTMetro section sensationalizes crime. The way it serves as a stenographer for law enforcement interests. Here is just one thread from last year.

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1133928666394636288

26. This kind of reporting has real consequences @migold @AshleyAtTimes. For example, law enforcement interests used precisely this kind of false fearmongering to roll back bail reform earlier this year. And the media – just like you – played a key role. theintercept.com/2020/02/23/cri…

27. To put it differently @NYTMetro: you are mass incarceration’s handmaidens. Your reckless, sensational, false reporting locks black bodies in jail cells. The cynical politics of mass incarceration depends upon you. You are instrumental to the maintenance of a racist system.

28. Rather than educate the public, you mislead and deceive the public. It’s not a mistake that the public constantly FALSELY thinks crime is up even when, over a long period of time, it is way, way down. It’s because you tell them so. You do it.

29. When the history of this era is written, it won’t just be Fox News or the New York Post that has much to answer for in helping to create and maintain mass incarceration. The New York Times Metro section will have played a central role.