Libya insights from Gamal Helal, Egyptian interpreter and senior adviser @StateDept for decades:
Long before Trump, the U.S. has always viewed Libya as an EU problem because the real threat is against Europe in the form of terrorists & illegal immigration
almarsad.co/en/2020/07/28/…
Long before Trump, the U.S. has always viewed Libya as an EU problem because the real threat is against Europe in the form of terrorists & illegal immigration
almarsad.co/en/2020/07/28/…
Gamal Helal: The U.S. recognized Tripoli's GNA until it became clear that the GNA is not working in the best interests of Libya but rather truckling to Turkey.
(He's right)
(He's right)
Gamal Helal: In April 2019, Trump called LNA leader Haftar, they spoke for nearly 2 hours (!), and it was understood to be a green light. If the LNA could free all of Libya, including Tripoli, it would become the "reality on the ground." However, LNA did not make this progress.
Gamal Helal: Usually, any green light or tacit approval by the U.S. is conditional on a specific time period, it isn't infinite. I think the Libyan (LNA) side did not understand this issue.
(He's right)
(He's right)
Gamal Helal: Trump will not provide any military support. The U.S. left the matter to the LNA's allies, and this created a void. Thus we saw Russia and Turkey play a role. The U.S. hoped the Europeans would fill the void because they are at risk if Libya falls to Erdogan.
Gamal Helal: The U.S. may play a greater political role because it does not want to see its allies Egypt and Turkey go to war. Perhaps AFRICOM will play a role if there is a political desire. But so far there is not a clear U.S. or EU threat to Erdogan not to interfere in Libya.
Gamal Helal: Egypt has experience in wars & knows exactly what it means to enter a war. Historically, Egypt's army does not fight outside its borders. However, Libya is not just another war, but a defense of Egyptian national security. It is a situation of ‘have to’ - not ‘may’.
