"Our revenue declined on a reported basis"-What an unlikely sentence to hear in an GOOG earnings call
Search is the main culprit behind the decline; non-ad segments couldn't offset search's impact.
Other bets: $148M revenue, $1.1 Bn loss
2/ Sundar is also making a pitch on India.
With US's acrimonious relationship with China, I cannot help but think India has to be US's biggest ally for next 10 years in the world. Democratic, capitalistic, and amazing depth of talent pool and consumer market.
*I'm not Indian.
3/ GOOG now automatically deletes location history, and web and app activity after 18 months. That's default now.
Like , is also focusing on shopping. It's too big a market to just concede to .
4/ Peak Google Meet participants was 600 million.
Also, a small update on Waymo.
5/ "G-suite maintained a healthy growth in average revenue per seat, as well as in seat growth..."
Other bets revenue primarily driven by Fiber and Verily
Repurchased $6.8 bn stock this quarter vs $15 bn in Q2'19.
6/ A sizable cost is not correlated with revenue, and GOOG chose to keep investing despite pressure on topline.
End/ Q&A is full of non-answers and platitudes. Hardly anything useful there.
RBC's Mahaney is asking the right question, but don't think there is anything to worry about yet.
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"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."