Prof. Madhav Nalapat Profile picture
Jul 31, 2020 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Characteristic of those steeped in the culture of the Lutyens Zone is to fasten themselves to whichever party and whoever leader is dominant at the period,discarding the old in the manner that lionesses forget an ageing lion that heads a pride who gets chased away by a competitor
Should another change occur, [...] causing the new masters to infuse into their govt enough elements of the old so as to ensure continuity in the policies that have kept much of the population of the country poorly compensated, inadequately educated and badly housed.
It was said of some of the ruling families that they forgot nothing and learnt nothing, which is why tectonic shifts in global geopolitics were not taken advantage of within the policymakers congregated inside the Lutyens Zone.
In the 1990s, when the USSR collapsed, India lost about $9 billion (in 1993 values) by agreeing to an artificially high price for the Russian rouble, the only country to make such a sacrifice.
It is true that the USSR stood by India when the US and the UK joined hands to wrest Kashmir for Pakistan, and assisted India in building up its defence infrastructure against both China and Pakistan.
Interlocutors from Russia are deft at convincing their Indian counterparts that they hate the Chinese, and hence all talk of a Sino-Russian alliance is the product of biased minds. In China, the same individuals usually give unflattering descriptions of the Indians... .
Shabby diplomacy towards the Russian Federation from President Bill Clinton onwards has convinced Vladimir Putin that the surest path to revenge on the slights of the past and present is to join with Xi Jinping in ending US primacy, including in matters military or the economy.
Should the US be bested by the Sino-Russian alliance, the effects on its highly leveraged economy and the potentially destructive lava of class and race tensions would almost certainly result in a slide into an instability not witnessed in that country since the 1861-65 Civil War
In the Joe Biden camp, the Biden campaign’s current foreign policy guru, Antony Blinken, seems to have retained his Euro-focused blinkers from the days when the hold of the Clintons was pervasive even in the Obama administration.
The proliferation in Team Biden of such rearview mirror enthusiasts is why the Chinese Communist Party leadership is eager for a Biden victory, despite inspired media reports that Donald Trump is the favoured choice.
If the Modi apps ban (and presumably other like steps) did not come about, it is likely that more than 90% of Indian meta data would be flowing seamlessly to Chinese entities by 2024.
The trajectory now being taken by the PRC resembles that sketched out by Lin Biao in his essay “Long Live the Victory of the People's War”, which was published in 1965.
A defeat for the PRC in a land contest along the Himalayas or in the South China Sea or Taiwan Straits may have the same impact on the PRC as the defeat of the Russian fleet at Tsushima in 1905 proved to be for the future of the Czarist regime.
Xi has relied on his diplomats to ensure (1) that the countries along China’s southern and eastern periphery do not unite but face the PRC singly and in particular that (2) an alliance does not form with the objective of presenting a united front against the PLA... .
Full article at: 'Shock military defeat would end Xi Jinping’s China Dream' i.mdnalapat.com/tsg26072020

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More from @MD_Nalapat

Jul 5, 2022
"The South China Sea is fast becoming a Chinese lake, given the density of PLAAF and PLAN military bases created within its waters."
In the case of “Mao’s heir” Xi, although almost all such activity remains hidden from the outside world, criticism of the functioning of the Office of the General Secretary (OGS) has been growing inside the higher ranks of the CCP.
More than the party secretariat or the civilian side of the central government, it is the military that has the most influence in the thinking of the present 🇨🇳 CCP General Secretary.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 2, 2021
It was apparent from 1959 onwards that it would only be a question of “when” and not “whether” the Peoples Liberation Army 🇨🇳 would be unleashed on its counterpart in India 🇮🇳.
If 1962 was the year in which Mao had decided to “teach India a lesson”, it made sense to ensure that a reliable and friendly partner, the Burmese military, took charge in Rangoon from a civilian government that was more independent of Beijing.
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has to be looked at in the context of the very possible preparations that are ongoing within the PRC military for a large-scale armed showdown on the border with India aimed at securing control of large chunks of our territory... .
Read 8 tweets
Jan 3, 2021
The US wanted to assist Tibetan resistance movements through supplies of weapons, but could not do so because Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru refused to permit such items from being transported through India.
It was believed by Nehru that the blank cheque he handed over to Chairman Mao on Tibet in 1950 would be repaid by the latter’s formal acceptance of the McMahon Line as the frontier between India and China.
Amazingly, the entry of the PLA into Aksai Chin was not even mentioned by the Indian side but neither was the implicit offer of Premier Zhou accepted that Aksai Chin would remain with the PRC but the line in the rest of the frontier would become the agreed boundary.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7, 2020
The higher an individual has progressed within the CCP, the more has been his or her awareness of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union General Secretary who presided over the demise of the USSR. Not as someone to emulate, but as an example to avoid.
Unlike in the case of the US and the USSR, where almost all the concessions made went one way, from the USSR to the very country eager to witness its demise, the PRC has been at the receiving end of concessions from Washington that have boosted its technology and the economy.
Should incoming President Joseph R. Biden Jr revert to the China-friendly policies of the Clinton era, voter backlash against the Democratic Party would be severe.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 6, 2020
President Donald J. Trump has had more than a few successes during his term, and Benjamin Netanyahu behaved with gratitude and courtesy in thanking him for some of them, which included the welcome escape of Israel from the diplomatic quarantine of so many Arab states.
In the case of that often ignored democracy, Taiwan, Trump has done more to secure that country from a PLA takeover than any of his predecessors since Jimmy Carter initiated the pro-PRC tilt.
The problem with Trump is that he has had a lifelong obsession with the dollar, which the 45th US President clearly values above all else, save perhaps Ivanka, Melania and Barron.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 17, 2020
The Supreme Court of India deserves gratitude from those who believe in the values of freedom and democracy. That “jail is the exception and bail is the rule” has been repeated endless times, yet it appears to many in India that jail is the norm and bail the exception.
So far as the media is concerned, over the years dozens of journalists have been sent to jail in states across the country. Some have been silenced in a more permanent way.
In another field, numerous personnel connected to India’s nuclear and missile industries succumbed to “suicides”, “accidents” & “break-in murders” since the 1990s, when President Clinton declared a public as well as a covert war on both nuclear & missile activity in our country.
Read 9 tweets

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