Nothing showcases the President's ignorance more than his total incomprehension on the basics of testing.
First, the US *trails* other rich countries on the testing metrics that matter: the linked metrics on tests per confirmed case, and overall test positivity.
First, the US *trails* other rich countries on the testing metrics that matter: the linked metrics on tests per confirmed case, and overall test positivity.
Other rich countries aren't testing at the same volume as the US *because they have already reduced their outbreaks.* The level of transmission defines the need for testing.
We would need a massive step-change to match Europe or other rich countries on these testing metrics.
We would need a massive step-change to match Europe or other rich countries on these testing metrics.
But more damningly, Trump show zero understanding of the fact that TESTING HELPS TO CONTROL THE OUTBREAK. He continues to think more testing = more cases, when in reality more testing = less transmission.
He is again showing a day-trader mentality on this outbreak - unable to think beyond a 24-hour news cycle.
More testing today means fewer cases in two weeks.
Less testing today means fewer cases FOUND today but more cases CREATED in the future.
THIS IS NOT HARD TO UNDERSTAND.
More testing today means fewer cases in two weeks.
Less testing today means fewer cases FOUND today but more cases CREATED in the future.
THIS IS NOT HARD TO UNDERSTAND.
What would it take for us to match peer countries on testing? Back to those charts.
US positivity rate yesterday was 7.8%. Canada's was 1%. Italy's was 0.5%.
US positivity rate yesterday was 7.8%. Canada's was 1%. Italy's was 0.5%.
For US to match those rates relative to existing* levels of detected US cases, we'd need to be conducting 6.6m to 13.3m tests per day, rather than ~850k.
*caveats in next tweet
*caveats in next tweet
*(caveat - this is a quick/dirty linear calculation, but since more testing would actually find additional cases beyond those we're currently detecting, we'd actually need higher levels of testing than this get to comparable levels of positivity)
Caveats aside, bottom line is that we need to be testing at least 6+ million per day to match what the rest of the rich world is doing.
US testing is roughly doubling every 1.5-2 months. At that rate we won't approach where we need to be until the end of the year.
US testing is roughly doubling every 1.5-2 months. At that rate we won't approach where we need to be until the end of the year.
And of course, testing numbers aren't everything - testing SPEED is hugely important.
850k tests per day aren't that useful if it's taking a week+ to get results. And we're failing badly on that front as well.
850k tests per day aren't that useful if it's taking a week+ to get results. And we're failing badly on that front as well.
The lack of sufficient testing, and the absence of federal leadership in closing the gap, are central to why we remain in crisis.
We won't get kids back to school, businesses back to work, or life back to (new) normal until we massively scale testing.
We won't get kids back to school, businesses back to work, or life back to (new) normal until we massively scale testing.
Trump is incapable of understanding that.
Which means continued economic and social devastation for as long as the ambition and competence of the federal response hinge upon Trump's own ego and ignorance.
Which means continued economic and social devastation for as long as the ambition and competence of the federal response hinge upon Trump's own ego and ignorance.
