We've been watching shear and dry air take their toll on #Isaias as shown in this 24-hour infrared imagery loop. The deepest convection (coldest cloud tops) shifts east and shrinks in coverage after 00 UTC.
Its current track, a bit west of the forecast, increases Florida risk.
Over the past 48 hours, Isaias has navigated a complex environment of mountainous island terrain (where Isaias produced strong wind and heavy rain) and, lately, increasing shear and dry air. The storm wrapping in dry air becomes readily apparent at the end of this TPW animation:
TPW = Total Precipitable Water
TPW estimates how much moisture is in the *entire* atmospheric column, so TPW doesn't show where (vertically) that moisture is. Dropsonde measurements revealed a layer where some of the (much!) drier air was near Isaias:
With respect to tropical cyclone count, 2024 may feel "slow" at this time given high seasonal forecasts.
But when we use an index like Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which incorporates a storm's intensity + duration, 2024 resembles 2020.
The season higher than 2024 so far is 2005.
Also, we haven't yet reached the peak of the season. September is, on average, the most active month in the Atlantic. For example, 10 TCs occurred in September 2020.
On the above chart, the thin gray lines each represent one year from 1988-2023.
A season can have periods of less activity or inactivity due to factors such as equatorial waves or the Madden-Julian oscillation, which -- depending on location and strength -- can increase sinking air and/or vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin, which limit TC activity.
On the downwind (leeward) side of mountains, air likes to spin more. That is, we observe increased vorticity. The amount and location (distribution) of low-level vorticity can affect TC behavior, like where and how fast it moves.
In the Northern Hemisphere, a TC's winds "spin" counterclockwise. Hilary is already a large TC, so those winds extend far from its center. Since Hilary is expected to move parallel the Mexican coast, winds on its eastern side may extend over the mountains of western Mexico.
That possibility could lead to somewhat enhanced low-level vorticity as those winds *from the TC circulation itself* descend down the Baja California mountains back toward the ocean.
According to the NHC's archive, since 1966 -- the start of the satellite era -- there have been 21 "zombie" named storms that reached an intensity of ≥34 kt as a tropical/subtropical storm, then became a remnant low or extratropical, and later regained tropical characteristics:
1981 Dennis, 3 days
1998 Mitch, 2 days
2001 Dean, 3.25 days
2001 Erin, 1.25 days
2002 Lili, 1.75 days
2004 Ivan, 4.25 days
2005 Gamma, 2.25 days
2009 Ana, 2 days
2010 Colin, 2 days
2011 Emily, 2.25 days
2011 Maria, 1.25 days
2011 Ophelia, 2.25 days
2012 Nadine, 1.5 days
2013 Dorian, 6.25 days
2013 Humberto, 1.25 days
2016 Bonnie, 2.75 days
2017 Harvey, 4 days
2017 Lee, 2.25 days
2018 Beryl, 6.25 days
2018 Kirk, 2.75 days
2018 Leslie, 3.25 days
Some perspective on the location of Laura's strongest winds (and common criteria those winds "translate" to):
- Tropical storm-force winds = gale-force winds
- 50+ kt = threshold for NWS severe t-storm warning
- 64+ kt = hurricane force
- 100+ kt = the RARE extreme wind warning
The winds associated with Laura's category 4 designation are confined to a TINY area near the storm center. Yet strong winds were widespread and extended FAR from the center, especially on the right side (where surge was worst because the large wind field pointed AT the coast).
Many, many folks have been affected by Laura's impacts and continue to wrestle with the aftermath. Widespread devastation extends the length of recovery, too.
But note that far fewer -- thankfully -- would've felt those "category 4" winds.
A short thread of real-world examples of the Fujiwhara effect (tropical cyclones can interact when their centers move within ~900 miles of each other, meaning they affect each other's movement and may even merge).
1) Wilma vs Alpha in 2005 -- Wilma absorbs the weaker Alpha
2) Hilary vs Irwin in the eastern North Pacific in 2017 -- the two storms swirl around each other until Hilary falls apart (3-hour resolution imagery)