SDJim Profile picture
Aug 2, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Let’s discuss test positivity rate (TPR) again.

Review: TPR is the % of total RESULTS (+ & -) that are positive. I chose those words carefully as nowadays a batch of results presented one day might represent tests conducted over many preceding days.

It’s crude metric.

THREAD… Image
TPR is influenced by testing practice in an area of interest.

For example, if tests only done on people with symptoms there is a high chance many will be positive. TPR will be high.

If tests only done as pre-op screening in people likely to be negative, TPR will be low.

...
If tests are used for a blend of these examples TPR might produce an OK “value”.

Experts say a TPR value consistently AT OR BELOW 5% indicates a sufficient # of people in a community are being tested. BUT for # to be valuable a BROAD SAMPLING of the community is necessary.

...
This doesn’t simply mean open testing to anyone who wants a test.

Best use should include aggressive testing of CONTACTS of test-positive people, frequent testing of “front line” workers, nursing home staff, health care workers, etc.

They are members of the community.

...
With a proper data set (broad range of community being tested) TPR can be very useful in guiding local policy and behavior.

South Dakota community officials and public should PRESS HARD on @SDDOH to describe the testing strategy in use and to open up testing to more people.

...
If @SDDOH cannot or will not speak to this in a direct and clear way one can only conclude that there is something afoul within the Department. They have a lot on their plate so I’m hoping there’s a benign explanation. I suspect capacity has been exaggerated, but why?

CONCLUSION:

More and more diffuse testing will provide a useful TPR which may help guide statewide, and more importantly, local policy and behavior. Let’s keep pushing for more testing. If DoH will not open up testing let’s hear why.

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More from @jimbuctwit

Dec 5, 2020
SARS-CoV-2 novel CORONAVIRUS is a nasty bug, no doubt about it. It’s the SINE QUA NON of the crisis we’re facing right now.

But, I’m NOT BLAMING THE VIRUS for the crisis.

Would I like to sweep up every last virus & toss them in a blast furnace?

Hell oui ! (pardon my French).🧵
The virus is just a teeny-weeny bag of itsy-bitsy pieces of RNA, just out there trying to get by.

Many people like to place a pile of blame onto the shoulders of our elected “LEADERS”. Leaders definitely could have done a lot better to consult, learn, teach and model.
...
Leaders could have planned better and appropriated funds more logically.

Rather than fuel the skeptics with misguided battle cries, leaders had the resources and time to get their acts together and bring communities together, to team-up and fight the spread.
...
Read 21 tweets
Nov 13, 2020
TEST POSITIVITY - My view.

Disclaimer: I'm not an epidemiologist nor statistician. This is my understanding of the topic.

A simple internet search will yield a LOT of explanations with good graphics so you might consider going that route if I don’t provide what you need.
I am going to sacrifice brevity and density for clarity, so this could end up being a long thread. My apologies in advance. Someone who knows how might unroll this for us.

In my haste I won’t have diagrams or graphics so you’ll have to use your imagination at times.

This thread is obviously about the coronavirus pandemic so I won’t specifically refer to virus all that much. You know what I’m talking about.

To start, imagine a community of 1000 people in which 100 people are randomly infected. We’ll test a random sample of 100.
Read 30 tweets
Nov 12, 2020
If feel like making a shocking statement, a bold prediction. One of those statements a person immortalizes in a tweet that others repost a couple months later and say “This didn’t age well”.

If you’ll bear with me I’ll explain what is swirling around in my head.

Here’s a hint: Image
First, I should say that I don’t have any special access to information and I don’t really have any special skill in making predictions pertinent to the coronavirus pandemic in South Dakota. But it’s obvious I’ve been paying attention.

Some observations and assumptions:

COVID cases continue to rise in SD.
Community spread is SUBSTANTIAL just about EVERYWHERE in SD.
Some individual-level spread mitigation is happening.
No MEANINGFUL, broad governmental effort to mitigate spread is in effect.

Read 8 tweets
Nov 10, 2020
What good is FREE, MASS CoV TESTING to anyone who wants a test ...

IF you don't plan to quarantine until result is returned?
IF you are asymptomatic and are not a close contact?
IF results take 3-5 business days (up to a week!)?
IF you won't isolate 10+ days if positive?
IF ...
IF you are worried you might have COVID because you're sick or have had close contact with someone with COVID,

you MUST QUARANTINE until you receive the result otherwise the test does nothing to slow the spread. If you don't plan to quarantine why get the test?
IF your result is positive and you are unable or unwilling to NOTIFY OTHER with whom you've had close contact, or tell you employer about your result, the value of getting tested is very low.

The point of testing is to break the chain of transmission.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18, 2020
I'm tired of the mask-debaters, anti-testers, herders and the like. I'm certain NOTHING will change their minds. People of that ideology, and it is an ideology, don't move to SD because they're welcome here, they are GROWN and nurtured here.

Many of them are my good friends.
...
So...

If anyone wants to discuss the pandemic or has a legitimate question about how it spreads & how it does damage to the human body or economy, sure, I'll engage. We can start as far back in the basics of science as they want. I have all the patience in the world for that....
If anyone wants to discuss their fears & concerns about how the virus is impacting their life, I'll listen as long as it takes. I get that this is overwhelming & financially devastating to many. I will listen, and I'll propose that to get back to "normal" we must face the virus..
Read 7 tweets
Sep 13, 2020
It is likely that HOSPITAL usage by COVID patients in South Dakota will become a hot topic in coming days & weeks.

Here are some questions that come to mind. It would be nice if media reps would consider pursuing this line of questioning at a press conf.

🧵 A short thread. Image
It should be easy to put this one to rest:

The # of "currently hospitalized", per DoH, "MAY include out-of-state cases". Does that mean SOME or ALL non-SD residents receiving care in SD hospitals? Or non-SD residents residing in SD for college? Or SD residents in non-SD hosp? Image
What are the current denominators used for these various CAPACITY METERS, and how are those numbers determined?

Does capacity value represent real-world, actively available beds or does is include "surge" capacities that would require re-appropriation of ORs, post-op beds, etc? Image
Read 7 tweets

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