"I am a better investor because I am a businessman, and I am a better businessman because I am an investor”
2/ I have always thought my biggest weakness as an analyst is my lack of experience in an operating environment.
Cole's clarity of thinking and frameworks made me wonder whether such depth is only possible through active learning that comes from an operating environment.
3/ "I've learned that people tend to become closer to their potential if you see them as their potential and the opposite happens if the opposite is true."
"when you see it differently as what's possible and then act accordingly people tend to be a better version of
themselves"
4/ Relevance vs differentiation
Relevance: it is meaningful to my life today
Differentiation: It is unique and I can identify the uniqueness
5/ Franchise Model
"no relationship goes well when you're managing via compliance. It is about shared commitment"
6/ Negotiating
"anytime I've pushed the boundaries of that, anytime I've been a good salesperson and been able to get one or two more points of royalty that are probably a bit beyond what is really the fairest deal, those deals always end early."
7/ Brand attributes that should get you excited: fan love and a sense of community. It's not scale.
8/ Leadership lesson
"...people who are close to the action know what the right thing to do is long before the leader makes the decision."
9/ One question to improve your personal and work relationships
"tell me one thing I can do differently to be more effective for you?"
End/ "our truth is in our roots, but our past is not our jail."
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."