Thread by @gianlucac1

Official bureau of Statistics in Italy (ISTAT) just published a seroprevalence analysis results 1/n

Period 25/5-15/7
Infected 1.482mn
2.5% population
South basically unaffected

Healthworkers 5.6%
Kids 0-5: 1.3%
Adults >85: 1.8%

Household 41.7&%
Work 11.6%
Hospitals 12.1%

Asymptomatic 27.3%

2/n

Symptoms

Fever
Cough
Headache

3/n

If this data are reliable (havent reviewed study yet)

IFR with reported deaths 35k/1,482mn=2.36%
IFR with extra morthality= 55k/1.482=3.7%

HOPE THE SEROPREVALENCE IS WRONG

4/4 fin

@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW @mtizzoni @alexvespi @ciro @Ruffino_Lorenzo @CT_Bergstrom

@michaelmina_lab @florian_krammer @angie_rasmussen @AdamJKucharski @BogochIsaac @EricTopol @OGiannino @AttilioGeroni @Doom3Gloom @AurelianoStingi @davidemancino1

@threadreaderapp unroll

EXTRA TWEET

SAMPLE CORRECTION

60K of 150K showed up

2667 filters

Heckman would not be proud

ht @davidemancino1

EXTRA TWEET #2

IFR national does mean anything as deaths are skewed to affected areas

Ok. Lombardy seroprevalence 7.5% over 10.1mln residents and deaths 16.8k

IFR Lombardy 16.8K/760K=2.2%

Still fucking high

@ThManfredi @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @CrossWordsCW @mtizzoni