1/ Today, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on the Trump Administration’s Venezuela policy.
Short story – it’s been a case study in diplomatic malpractice, and I want to tell you the quick story of how Trump’s bungling has empowered a brutal dictator.
Short story – it’s been a case study in diplomatic malpractice, and I want to tell you the quick story of how Trump’s bungling has empowered a brutal dictator.
2/ In early 2019, an opportunity presented itself. Maduro’s reelection was a fraud, and the world knew it. The charismatic opposition leader, Juan Guaido, stood ready to capitalize and restore democracy to the nation.
3/ The winning play was right in front of us – bring together all of Latin America behind a transition or new, free elections, and take the time to work with or neutralize Maduro’s patrons (Russia, Cuba, and to a lesser extent China).
4/ But Trump couldn’t talk to Cuba (bc Obama), Putin had Trump wrapped around his finger, and all Trump wanted to talk to China about was the trade deal. So we made no meaningful effort to move them, and all three stood solidly behind Maduro.
5/ Then, Trump and his Latin America hawks got itchy. He recognized Guaido as the leader of the nation, thinking that would propel Venezuelans (and Maduro-friendly military leaders) to Guaido’s side.
6/ In fact, the opposite happened. By putting Elliot Abrams (the symbol of “American imperialism” in Latin America) in charge of Venezuela, and by acting largely alone, Trump helped Maduro rally the military and much of the country against America and cast Guaido as a U.S. pawn.
7/ Then, it got real embarrassing. In April 2019, we tried to organize a kind of coup, but it became a debacle. Everyone who told us they’d rally to Guaido got cold feet and the plan failed publicly and spectacularly, making America look foolish and weak.
8/ Since then, it’s been a running comedy of errors. For instance, Bolton scuttled promising transition talks led by Norway in August 2019 saying “the time for negotiations is over!” Then this March, Pompeo unveiled a transition plan that is a carbon copy of the one we killed.
9/ Now, having wasted a year trying to work on a transition plan, Guaido is boycotting the upcoming legislative elections.
So what then? Keep recognizing Guaido as the nation’s leader, even if he doesn’t control the military, the government, or even hold office?
So what then? Keep recognizing Guaido as the nation’s leader, even if he doesn’t control the military, the government, or even hold office?
10/ It’s a total disaster. After a year and a half, Maduro is stronger, American influence is weaker, and there is no viable path to restore democracy in Venezuela. A case study in international relations malpractice.
