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Meet Steven Manzo, a tragic casualty of lockdown. A recovering addict who overcame so much, and had so much life ahead of him.

#RIPStevenManzo

Next time you advocate for the closure of a business, school, or other aspect of society, remember Manzo.

Then multiply his case by...
5,000: Roughly the increase in national overdose fatalities from March to May, based on these % increases above the CDC's 2018 baseline. washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07…
10,000: The estimated increase in breast & colorectal cancer deaths over the next 10 years due to missed cancer screenings. "This analysis is conservative," says the author, director of the U.S. National Cancer Institute. science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
10,000: The estimated increase in suicides among current college students, based on survey showing 1,000,000 newly-depressed students since fall 2019, if 50% are treated clinically. 2% of those treated for depression will die by suicide, per HHS.
43,500: The increase in cardiovascular deaths "as a result of delaying or not seeking care as the outbreak progressed," per the 27% increase estimated by WaPo / Yale School of Public Health. washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…
5,000: The "very conservative" estimate of additional suicides resulting from wide-scale unemployment in the next 3 years, based on this analysis by Dr. David Puder and an associated team of six M.D.s: psychiatrypodcast.com/psychiatry-psy…
15,000: The number of excess dementia deaths since March. "We’re hearing stories of people declining and dying literally from loneliness and feelings of abandonment." wsj.com/articles/coron…
For those keeping count, we're already up to 88,500. This already comprises more than half of the current death toll from COVID-19. And these are just the things we can currently quantify.

What about those that we can't?
Are we reducing the overall health of future generations? "Socially isolated children were at significant risk of poor adult health compared with nonisolated children ... independent of other well-established childhood risk factors for poor adult health." jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
Are we exacting a lifelong cost on our children by keeping schools closed? "Some modeling suggests that the loss of learning during the extraordinary systemic crisis of World War II still had negative impact on former students’ lives some 40 years later." brookings.edu/blog/education…
Will social isolation increase all-cause mortality overall? "Actual & perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality... with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age <65 years." journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Will unemployment? "An increased risk of mortality 1995–2003 was found among individuals who experienced 90 days or more of unemployment during 1992–4 compared with those still employed." jech.bmj.com/content/64/01/…
We don't know how many unavoidable deaths we have created with our response to C19. We don't know how long the effects will last.

Evidence suggests that Steven Manzo is already far from alone.

But Steven Manzo and others need not - SHOULD not - die in vain.
We can learn these lessons now, and readjust our approach to minimize the TOTAL cost associated with C19 - not just in terms of disease-specific death tolls and case counts, but in terms of the effect on ALL lives, their quality, and their longevity.

#RIPStevenManzo
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