Thread by @conways_law

A contrary view of Donald Trump.

(This systems view of politics is a placeholder for future work that I expect to succeed and replace it.)

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What I see written about Donald Trump is typically some combination of:
1. He is an evil genius (the narcissism goes here).
2. He is a well-connected criminal.
3. He is stupid.
4. He is a brilliant showman.

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These might be reasonable conclusions based on his behavior alone, but they don’t take into account the networks that contains/contained him. (By using the past tense “contained” I refer to partial information I have about his family history from interviews of Mary Trump.)

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My view:
I see Donald Trump as a severely damaged person with a thoroughly constructed facade that hides a personal emptiness. This facade works with almost everybody to block further probing into what’s behind his behavior.

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His power resides, not in his person, but in the networks that engulf him. Individuals in the networks are called “enablers” by others, but I see something much more specific than that.

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I have begun writing about this social phenomenon from a systems perspective; I’ve given it a placeholder name “social clumping”.

A recent essay is about social coherence around open lies:

https://twitter.com/conways_law/status/1285990003244503044

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It asserts that social coherence in general derives from a network of negative-feedback-loop communication pathways between individuals whose overall effect is to align the behaviors of these individuals toward social coherence.

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These feedback loops are associated with interpersonal communication pathways, and their message content can range anywhere from a dirty look to cult shunning.

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How these pathway messages interact with personal behavior is a topic that lies at the intersection of individual psychology and systems science. These distributed associations between communication and behavior are what’s behind the emergent powers of the networks.

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A more recent essay is larger in scope and presents a general definition of emergence, of which social clumping is just one instance:
melconway.com/CBH/Freedom_Em…

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By the way, if you’re not familiar with these ideas, check out this article and video on the murmurations of starlings:
npr.org/sections/13.7/…

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There is a large and powerful combined network of coherence pathways touching Donald Trump. Many writers have documented the origins of this network.

My purpose here is to assert that the power is not primarily in the individuals but in the network itself.

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(See Metcalfe's Law and network effects:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%….)

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I see this failure to distinguish between the individuals and the network in just about all political commentary about Donald Trump. My belief is that (with a few exceptions) a focus on the individuals will lead to weak interventions.

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I am asserting a dual view: the more effective interventions will come from finding and intervening in the network pathways, specifically *pathway types*. (Note the parallel to pathways in biomedical research.)

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Donald Trump’s coherence network is a large and interconnected one with a long history. That is the basis of its power, not the person at the center.

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Here are some parts of his network of which I’m aware.
1. Lawyers, accountants, bankers and other service providers of a certain persuasion.
2. Family members, including the family business, with their own networks.

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3. Elements from other criminal networks, both domestic and international, with joint interests in real estate, money laundering, and other activities. (See, for example, “House of Trump, House of Putin” by @craigunger.)

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4. Appointees throughout the Administration.
5. Republican politicians at the national, and some at the state, level. (See “The Impostors” by @stevebenen.)
6. Elements of the Council for National Policy (as documented by @anelsona in “Shadow Network”).

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7. Members of the journalism establishment, to varying degrees.
a. Some, such as Fox News, are directly aligned with Donald Trump’s interests.

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b. Many others, both newspapers and broadcast networks, while they might not be aligned politically, benefit consciously from the positive-feedback news-churn cycle. (This explains why his promiscuous lying is promiscuously amplified.)

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All together, it is a very sticky network. My general suggestion regarding intervention is to identify the most sensitive pathways and disrupt them using means specific to their natures.

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Examples of *pathway type* disruption from the past: using conspiracy and bank, insurance, and tax fraud law to disassemble criminal networks.

We need to apply this pathway-type approach to the Internet era. (See “Mindf*ck” by @chrisinsilico.)

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As @sarahkendzior documents in “Hiding in Plain Sight” the Trump-centered network I’ve described above is only one of many inside and outside the United States that are degrading our Republic. This systems view applies to them all.

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Here is my message to our journalists.

The recovery of our Republic will involve identifying and partially disrupting some of these networks. You have a vital role in uncovering and displaying them to the public. I propose that you:

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1. Become expert in network effects as they apply to your work. Think network pathways, find them, and show us all how they empower the emergent effects of the whole network.

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2. Develop among yourselves an open-standard specification for displaying in any Web browser a complete presentation of your network research. It should allow extensible drill-down to facilitate continuing research and education at any level.

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3. Cooperate in publishing your network research in this form, in addition to any other forms you choose, so that all viewers will benefit cumulatively from the totality of your collective work.

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I expect that you will discover a new collective power to educate the public and thereby support public policy.

Cc: @anelsona @VWPickard

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