Thread by @Olivia_Gazis

NEW ODNI election threat update takes the notable step of disclosing the candidate preferences of China, Russia & Iran.

“Many foreign actors have a preference for who wins the election, which they express through..overt and private statements; covert influence efforts are rarer”

+ CHINA: "We assess that China prefers that President Trump...does not win reelection."

+ RUSSIA: "We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate... Biden... Some Kremlin-linked actors are also seeking to boost President Trump’s candidacy"

+ IRAN: "We assess that Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions, President Trump, and to divide the country..."

These assessments "represent the most current, accurate, and objective election threat information the IC has to offer in an unclassified setting"

+ "The IC has and will continue to provide classified election threat briefings to the presidential campaigns, political committees and all Members of Congress..."

+ "We will also keep providing updates to the American public, consistent with our national security obligations. The steps we have taken thus far to inform the public and other stakeholders on election threats are unprecedented for the IC."

Publicly identifying the candidate preferences of foreign actors ahead of an election seems indeed an unprecedented step for the IC --

Though ODNI/DHS issued a general warning about Moscow's activities in Oct 2016, it was not until Jan 2017 that IC said Russia, having “developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump” had sought to damage Secretary Clinton’s election chances & boost then-candidate Trump’s.

Today's statement follows mounting pressure from House & Senate Democrats on the IC to clarify the preferences, capabilities and actual measures engaged in by each actor - Evanina's last statement was criticized for creating what Dems said was a false equivalence among all three

Evanina's update explicitly identifies what some Dems cited as a top concern: "Pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption – including through publicizing leaked phone calls – to undermine...Biden’s candidacy"

cbsnews.com/news/100-days-…

Bipartisan statement from Senate Intelligence Committee leaders Marco Rubio & Mark Warner applauds this update’s “additional context,” encourages more information sharing, and admonishes political leaders to “refrain from weaponizing intelligence matters for political gain”

Intel officials have warned consistently since 2016 that Russia & possibly others were likely to continue engaging in election interference, likely using new and more sophisticated, less detectable, tactics.

All three actors being identified in 2020 have previously been named by the IC as likely to deal in disinfo/influence ops - including in the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment:

dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

What's not yet clear about today's update is whether it will be satisfying to those concerned about false equivalence - e.g., is observing China being critical of Trump's policies on 5G or TikTok comparable to Russia engaging in ops to engineer a candidate-specific outcome

Indeed - Pelosi & Schiff welcome today’s update while maintaining it doesn’t go far enough: “[T]oday’s statement still treats 3 actors of differing intent and capability as equal threats to our democratic elections...the American people must be provided with specific information”

CISA’s Chris Krebs- “While motives may vary, one thing is consistent: They are attempting to interfere in our democratic process. That’s why we have spent the last several years preparing..to ensure the adversaries are not successful and American voters decide American elections”

US official briefed on intel underlying today’s election threat update cautioned that “having a preference and doing something about it are not one and the same."

cbsnews.com/news/u-s-intel…

Senate Majority Leader McConnell praises Evanina, says “Russian malign influence efforts remain a significant threat. But it would be a serious mistake to ignore the growing threats posed by China and Iran.”