Last week, I published a thread on what Africa's position ought to be in the rising tension between China and the West. I attempted to lay out arguments against why Africa would choose the West, as a "partner of choice" over China. This week, I want to focus on China. THREAD
China's partnership pitch to African states is compelling. It presents itself as a brotherly nation with the shared experience of the ills of colonialism, yet has no colonial baggage. It offers to assist in financing and building infrastructure to advance African prosperity. 1/
China also presents an alternative development model backed by the unprecedented achievement of lifting over 800 million out of poverty in four decades. For a continent mired in poverty, and low productivity, the Chinese model can be attractive. 2/
The model has strengths and weaknesses which would impact its adoption in Africa. First the model is powered by debt (accumulated at an unsustainable pace) leading to debt overhang that impedes public investment in things other than infrastructure. 3/
The scale and pace of debt accumulation in this model also exposes debtor states (with limited fiscal space) to shocks - external and internal. This is especially true for commodity-dependent states and the vagaries of commodity prices. 4/
The infrastructure need in Africa is undeniable - but that's not the only need. Africa's large and growing population requires significant social spending, yet China, a "reluctant" multilateralist rarely acts in concert with others. Debt thus crowds out other crucial spending. 5/
More importantly, there is a political philosophy - worldview - undergirding the Chinese model. And while that worldview has worked spectacularly for China, the extent of its desirability and replicability in Africa is limited. 5/
In China's worldview, the organizing principle of society is the political party. All legitimacy, power and authority are vested in and flow from the party. The legitimacy of a citizen's actions are determined by the party through the government and not the other way round. 6/
Citizens thus have a limited view of the internal workings of government and a significant portion of government business is conducted in secrecy. I can't imagine South Africans, Tanzanians or Zimbabweans handing such uncontested powers to the ANC, CCM or ZANU-PF respectively. 7
The success of this model depended on China leveraging its size, size that most African states do not have. About 22 or Africa's 54 states have populations at or below 5.5 million, 10 of which are below 1.2 million. 16 African countries are also landlocked. Scaling is hard. 8/
While 90% of the Chinese population is Han, most African states are an amalgam of multiple ethnic groups. Elections are thus decided on grand bargains among elites between regions or ethnic groups. A direct participatory method, while not indispensable, is thus preferred. 9/
And while China has no colonial baggage in Africa, the behavior meted out against Africans in Guangzhou raised serious questions about the true nature of our relationship with the Chinese people, not just the CCP or the government. How do ordinary Chinese actually see us? 10/
Reciprocity between China and Africa on migration still delivers sub-optimal outcomes for Africa. Approximately, a million Chinese live, work and start businesses on the continent. No similar path or opportunity exists for Africans who want to legally do the same in China. 11/
China commendably hosts the most number of Africans studying outside the continent, but again they cannot stay or start businesses when they graduate. When China proposed a "green-card" legislation, it unleashed virulent anti-African racism online from ordinary Chinese. 12/
In mining and construction, China's stewardship of the environment in Africa has not measured up. Chinese overfishing along Africa's costs is threatening livelihoods and decimating fish stocks. Chinese demand almost pushed some African wildlife to the brink of extinction. 13/
Against all odds, Africa has established deep and complex ties to the West that China cannot replace or substitute. Looking beyond Western citizens who are descendants of African slaves, let's just focus on recent African immigrants and their children.
The son of a Kenyan student became President of the United States. The current mayor of Helena, MT (@CollinsWilmot) is a former Liberian refugee. Representative @Ilhan was born in Somalia. The reigning MVP of the NBA, @Giannis_An34, is a Greek son of Nigerian parents. 15/
Africa is more than its governments. Africa is its people who form people to people ties without the approval or involvement of governments. It's hard to see how China replicates this. What would it even look like in practice for an African country to "pick" China over the West?
After all, both China and the West have thrived in a global trade structure which restricts Africa to a fringes role of sourcing unprocessed raw materials and providing a market for finished goods. So we get pennies on the dollar for our exports and pay premium on imports. 17/
China and the West are thus imperfect partners, with strengths and weaknesses. Africa has interests and needs that are unique and unrelated to Western or Chinese goals. Africa, therefore, does not seek a "partner of choice", but what @JDevermont calls a "choice of partners". END
