Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

The prospects for democracy in Bolivia have, in part because of the immoral and irresponsible actions of the current far-right government, significantly dimmed.

But there's still a narrow path to democracy. Here's three scenarios.

[Thread]

First, let me address some outright calumnies.

Some pretend that I have cheered on the actions of the current government. But I have never said a positive word about Jeanine Añez. In fact, I clearly expressed my concerns about her @TheAtlantic within weeks of her assuming power.

Second, there is ongoing debate about the contested election in 2019. A serious study recently claims that the result was not fraudulent. Others disagree. The argument is not yet settled.

But it's important to remember that there were a lot of abuses BEFORE the election.

Just take a look at the 2018 @freedomhouse report on Bolivia, which long precedes the election.
 
Morales had been attacking civil liberties, independent institutions, and political freedoms for a long time.

From the beginning, this was the context in which I criticized Morales.

To portray Morales as a democrat on the basis of one study about the contested election, while ignoring his long-standing pattern of attacks on democratic institutions, is to deliberately miss the point.

So what might happen now? Basically, I see three likely paths:

1) Añez steals or cancels the election and establishes a dictatorship 

2) Morales (or an ally) returns to power and establishes a dictatorship

3) Reconciliation: Some political leader manages to broker a compromise

1)

Añez ascended to power because of arcane rules. She never had broad support. She is increasingly willing to use violence and intimidation to govern and (pointing to COVID) has just postponed the elections.

All of this raises the risk of Bolivia sliding into dictatorship.

But it is far from clear that Añez has either the will or the means to establish a dictatorship. 

Would she be able to cancel rather than postpone elections? Is the military likely to stand by her if she does?
 
Both are sadly possible but thankfully not very likely.

2)

It's possible that Bolivia will eventually hold reasonably free and fair elections, and that Morales' MAS will win them.

A successor to Morales might be more respectful of democratic institutions. But he could also resume attacks on them or hand power back to Morales.

From the Sandinistas in Nicaragua to the generals in Egypt, there is plenty of precedent for an intensification of repression after antidemocratic forces return to power, especially when their adversaries have also committed terrible acts.

3)

There are, however, three paths to reconciliation.

Perhaps Añez i) starts to compromise and ii) somehow wins the elections (unlikely, unlikely).

Perhaps MAS i) wins the elections and ii) forgoes antidemocratic attacks (likely, possible)

Or perhaps a moderate like Mesa i) wins the election and ii) brokers a compromise which just about defuses tensions until the next elections (possible, likely).

The opinion polls suggest that the latter two scenarios are a genuine possibility.

Things aren't looking great in Bolivia. But:

1) We should all hope that the narrow path to democracy will prevail.

2) We should clearly criticize the bad actions of the Anez government.

3) We should not pretend that these retrospectively turn Morales into a democrat.

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