Over past few days, data from TX has gone from bad to worse
And I don't understand. Why is testing falling off a cliff?
But the big picture here is this:
Texas is in trouble and has to turn things around
Thread
# of tests down 50% (60K to 30K)
Cases largely flat (around 7K)
Percent positive way up: 24%. A crazy high number
And Rt.live has the Rt of TX at 1.13 (3rd highest in nation)
2/3
Another words -- they are missing 90% of the cases
Yet, talk now is restarting schools, sports (especially football)
Can't really do these w/out new control measures
3/4
1. Enforced mask mandate
2. keep bars closed. Stop indoor gatherings
3. Hold on school decisions until outbreak under control
4. Fix testing so more rapid turn-around testing available
4/5
Texas in uncharted territory
1. Dramatic fall off in testing
2. Cases stable
3. Spiking % of positive tests
My suspicion is that over the next week to two, hospitalizations will rise again and deaths will soon follow
We could wait. We shouldn't. Act now
Fin