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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 26

So this is going to be super in the weeds, but I will keep it relatively short. I think this will be key to understanding/analyzing the early vote this year. And explains how I think the GOP will use early vote data to falsely claim that they are winning/have momentum.

First, remember that one key element of early vote analysis is comparing to prior cycles. While there is a tactical advantage for the party that can bank more votes early, that by itself isn't indicative of a turnout/enthusiasm advantage.

For that reason, we like to compare the early vote to the same point in prior cycles. Absent anything unusual (and there is something unusual we have to deal with this cycle), if one party has a larger share of the early vote turnout relative to '20, that is a good sign for them.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 24

We're seeing wide discrepancies in the polling of key subgroups with Dem underperformance in national polls that doesn't show up when these groups are polled with large sample specialty surveys. Mostly among young voters and voters of color.

For example, today's CNN poll showing a 1 pt national Harris lead shows her with a relative narrow lead with young voters. We've seen this elsewhere. But the Harvard/IOP poll shows Harris with a bigger lead than Biden 2020 with the same voters!

National polls have shown Trump performing especially well with Black voters, but again, this is small subgroup data. Howard University released a battleground survey of just Black voters, showing Harris looking very strong.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 13

I've seen a lot of mostly GOP-aligned accounts here in recent days/weeks sharing voter registration stats for the past 4 years showing GOP advantages in voter registration. These stats are generally quite misleading, here's why.

The biggest reason: their exclusion of unaffiliated voters in their stats, and a failure to further explore who is registering unaffiliated. The reality is that Gen Z is less likely to register with a party, but still overwhelmingly Dem.

Here's PA new voter registration data, as an example. Notice how each cycle has seen an increase in voters registering unaffiliated.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 6

So over the past couple of days, Nate Silver has been tweeting multiple times a day insisting that things are looking worse and worse for the Harris campaign.

One state he claims has moved 1.2 pts to Trump since the convention is WI. Let's take a look at the recent polls there.

6 of 10 post convention polls show Harris leading, by an average margin of 7 points. But the two GOP highschool kids' poll has the race even, Trafalgar (leaders of the red wave polls of '22) have Trump up 1, and then one Dem pollster I'm not familiar with had the race even.

Silver showed the most movement towards Trump in NC. So let's look at the post convention polls there...

It's the highschool kids again! And InsiderAdvantage, one of the four horseman of the red wave polling of '22 apocalypse. And a new red-waver.. SoCal strategies, a GOP firm!

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 6

We now have voter file updates for 38 states that cover the week of July 21st, affording us the opportunity to quantify the reaction of the electorate to VP Harris as the nominee.

Our analysis compares new registrations during the week of 7/21/2024 to the same week in 2020, for the sake of consistency. Overall, total registrations were actually slightly down in 2024, relative to 2020 (289k to 283k). But what do the subgroups show?

First, looking at partisanship. We use modeled party ID, because not all states allow voters to register with a party. The results are stark. The 2020 new reg was +3 GOP. As Harris took over the ticket, new registrants were +22 D.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 6

At long last, we have a PA voter file update that includes the week of July 21st, after VP Harris ascended to the top of the ticket....

Okay, first, when compared to the same week in 2020, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in PA in the week following Biden's withdrawal. Dem registration increased by 46.6%, GOP by 21.1%.

Demographically, once again (as we have seen in other states over this same time period) young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a shocking 59.6%, relative to 2020.

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