David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Aug 12, 2020 3 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Compared to her primary win in 2018, Rep. @IlhanMN did better in almost every precinct in #mn05 this week, with a few exceptions primarily in Edina/SW Minneapolis. My analysis for @MPRnews: mprnews.org/story/2020/08/… Image
@IlhanMN @MPRnews Side-by-side #mn05 maps showing Omar’s primary performance by precinct in 2018 and 2020: ImageImage
@IlhanMN @MPRnews In Omar’s worst precincts in 2018, she combined for 34% of the vote.

In those same precincts in 2020, she combined for 45%.

But she did better in her good precincts, too — 67% in ’18 to 77% in ’20. Improvements across the board.

More @MPRnews: mprnews.org/story/2020/08/… Image

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More from @dhmontgomery

Feb 15
I finally hit on why "Hazbin Hotel" is leaving me so cold. I love a stylized sitcom about depraved souls in the afterlife struggling toward redemption: It's called "The Good Place," & while it lacked raunch, songs & art deco animation, it had sophisticated multi-layered writing.
Partly this is a difference in execution — if you hired Michael Schur to script-doctor the dialogue on "Hazbin Hotel" you'd get a much better show — but in large part it's just intent. TGP was aiming at the border between middle- and high-brow; HH is aiming at middle-low.
I see everything "Hazbin Hotel" is trying to do, and can appreciate it in an abstract sense. It's not a terrible show, it's just, like, a C+. It's competently done and has a few interesting ideas, but (4-5 episodes in) doesn't display any real verve or finesse in its writing.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 21, 2023
You BET we polled people about #Napoleon. On the eve of a new biopic, most Americans don't know very much about Bonaparte, and what they do know, they don't especially like.

My story for @YouGovAmerica, with lots of charts: today.yougov.com/society/articl…

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The U.S. actually has the highest rates of considering Napoleon's legacy to be "negative" of any of 8 countries YouGov polled. That includes several other countries that Napoleon actually invaded, humiliated and occupied.

today.yougov.com/society/articl…
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What DO Americans know — or think they know — about Napoleon? Well, I regret to inform you that one of the most popular descriptors was "short," with no real difference between people who said they knew a fair bit about Napoleon and those who didn't.

today.yougov.com/society/articl…
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Read 5 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
This is a fun one. I had @YouGovAmerica ask 29,000 people how they organize their books.

- 29% don't organize their books
- 22% sort by genre
- 19% alphabetize
- 3% sort by color

But it turns out this depends HEAVILY on how many books you own. My story: today.yougov.com/society/articl…
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cc @WaltHickey @pbump @PatrickRuffini @goodreads @DanielBGreene @aedwardslevy @NateSilver538
How many books do people own, anyway? My @YouGovAmerica survey found most people own at least SOME physical books, but most of these collections are pretty small. 20% of Americans own between 1 & 10 books.

My full story with more data on book ownership: today.yougov.com/society/articl…
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Read 5 tweets
Jul 5, 2023
NEW: Full-time caregiving is the #1 reason prime-age Americans don't work. In my latest for the @MinneapolisFed, I break down the stats behind this key demographic group:

- mostly parents
- mostly but decreasingly women
- mostly happy staying home
minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Among adults age 25-54, women are 90% of full-time caregivers. But that's down from 96% two decades ago, while the share of full-time caregivers who are men has doubled.

https://t.co/xWLDUpz3cPminneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Social conventions, health and individual preferences all impact parents' choices when one of them is going to stay home. But sometimes finances drive the decision, and in opposite-sex prime-age couples, men are twice as likely to be the top earner:

https://t.co/hDeK6hSAySminneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Read 7 tweets
May 19, 2023
When the @Suntimes ran an undercover bar to catch sleazy officials: "I think one of the things that amazed us is that these inspectors sold out public safety on the cheap. They were not taking huge amounts. We were told to leave $10 for one inspector & $25 for another inspector."
@Suntimes From this oral history (via @kottke): topic.com/the-story-behi…
@Suntimes @kottke Also: "[Columnists] smiled & gave me a thumbs-up. And I thought, ‘Well, that’s nice! They liked it!’ And it made me feel good. I was later told they gave me a thumbs-up b/c I got the word ‘ass’ in the paper. They’d been trying to get the word ‘ass’ past the copy desk for years."
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16, 2023
"Weak-link problems are problems where the overall quality depends on how good the worst stuff is... Some problems are strong-link problems: overall quality depends on how good the best stuff is, and the bad stuff barely matters." experimental-history.com/p/science-is-a…
"A car engine is a weak-link problem: it doesn’t matter how great your spark plugs are if your transmission is busted." But music is a strong-link problem: "At worst, bad music makes it a little harder for you to find good music."
Loving this new conceptual framework: For a strong-link problem, variance is good because it you benefit from more outliers; for a weak-link problem you want to minimize variance because outliers hurt you.
Read 4 tweets

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