BREAKING: 39.1% of teacher A-level predictions in England downgraded by algorithm inews.co.uk/news/education… @theipaper #AlevelResults
@theipaper Given there were 713,000 A-level entries in England, the figures suggest that about 280,000 grades were adjusted down (awaiting confirmation from @ofqual about this)
35.6% of results were one grade lower than proposed by schools, 3.3% were two grades lower and 0.2% were three grades lower.
In 58.7% of cases there was no change to the grade predicted, while 2.2% were increased by one grade, 0.05% by two grades, and 0.01% by three grades.
In 58.7% of cases there was no change to the grade predicted, while 2.2% were increased by one grade, 0.05% by two grades, and 0.01% by three grades.
Ofqual have said pupils from lower socioeconomic backgrounds were more likely to have seen a bigger downward adjustment, but said there was “no evidence of systematic bias” in the adjustments.
And here's the Ofqual analysis of the difference between teachers' predicted grades (the 'CAGs') and their final 'calculated grade'. Pupils with lower socioeconomic status see larger decrease at grade C than wealthier peers. 
Ofqual deputy Michelle Meadows said: “There was a tendency for some more generosity to be there in the predictions for students from lower socioeconomic status backgrounds... there is a small effect of a greater difference between the end calculated grades and the CAGs.”
Geoff Barton of @ASCL_UK said his union had received “heartbreaking feedback from school leaders about grades being pulled down in a way that they feel to be utterly unfair and unfathomable”. He called on the Government and Ofqual to “review the situation as a matter of urgency”.
@ASCL_UK As previously indicated by Ofqual, worth noting that today’s final results show a slight increase in grades compared to last year. Across the UK, A* grades increased by 1.2 percentage points, while A* to A rose 2.4 percentage points.
If teacher predictions had not been moderated there would have been unprecedented grade inflation of 12.5 percentage points in England, with % A*-A grades leaping from 25.2% in 2019 to 37.7% in 2020.
With moderation was 27.6%.
With moderation was 27.6%.
And @ucas_online has said record numbers from disadvantaged backgrounds have a confirmed place on an undergraduate course, more applicants accepted onto their first choice of course than last year, and overall, more applicants have a place compared to results day 2019.
