MSPs will vote on a motion of no confidence in John Swinney as education secretary today. We already know it'll fail, because the Greens won't back it - so why are the opposition pressing ahead with it? [thread alert] bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…
While the outcome is obvs the immediately important thing for parents and pupils, politically the narrative is significant too, with an election looming - and ScotGov seem to have successfully seized control of it
Especially with focus now shifting to A-level results down south, with Scotland as a case study in a potential solution which pleases students rather than of the underlying problem, opposition parties can't afford to leave this as essentially a "John Swinney saves the day" story
This was a debacle by ScotGov's own admission - they got it wrong in a key devolved area, affecting 75,000 young people. But while they had an uncomfortable week defending the policy prior to the u-turn, they've been fairly free since to make it a story about them *fixing it*
At FMQs yesterday Ruth Davidson basically teed up Nicola Sturgeon to give her a kicking about her party's leadership changes, and the best Richard Leonard came up with was a quote from a parly debate which took place a good few years before any current pupils were even born
There was also a bit of a failure to look ahead to the rest of the country being in the same boat before long - hence that deleted tweet from the Scottish Tories today, despite UKgov ultimately going with the "triple lock" approach they suggested last week
That's why today's debate is still important to the opposition - unless they do something to change the record, govt look set to walk away with credit for putting out a fire, without taking any kind of a hit for starting it (or fact there were warnings about playing with matches)
But to end where we started, the no confidence motion is not going to pass. It was notable how utterly unconcerned Nicola Sturgeon looked yesterday as opposition leaders called for John Swinney's head. What's the likelihood anyone lands a blow which will be remembered next May?
