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Thread on some takeaways from the UAE-Israel deal:

The biggest immediate winner is Donald Trump. This is his first proper diplomatic coup, if you were to brush aside the photo-op gaffe with Kim Jong-Un in '18.

With the Prez Elections around the corner, the timing is impeccable.
The biggest loser in both the short & long term is Iran, not Palestine.

TBH, Palestine was never getting independence. It's always been exploited as diplomatic leverage by Arab nations, who've also used it portray to their domestic audiences that they're "defenders of Islam".
Iran is more isolated now than it's ever been since '79.

If relations continue to normalise between Israel & other Arab nations, Iran & its proxies could lose influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq & even Yemen.

Good for NATO & the West, not good for power balance in the Mid-East.
This is AMAZING news for India from a realpolitik perspective.

Apart from our 6-year old and ever-warming relations with Israel, India has notably been snubbed Iran in the past and is realigning itself with Saudi, for a variety of reasons.

Nothing better than seeing your NATO-allies & your pragmatic non-NATO allies align closer.

The multi-polar world is increasingly looking bi-polar again: with US, NATO, Israel, India & Arab nations on one side; and China, Pak, Iran on the other.

Odd one out is Turkey 🤡
Russia will continue to weigh its options. Though the development isn't positive for Kremlin, their pragmatism in foreign policy is a model for nations to follow.

Expect them to double down on their own sphere of influence, as in Ukraine, Belarus and other ex-USSR states.
Important: Israel's plans to "halt the annexation of Palestine" mean absolutely nothing if they're going to intensify forced Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Something India should have started doing by now in Kashmir, since it's been a year since the abrogation of Art 370!
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