Raising $TSLA PT to $2,350 to reflect 5:1 stock split, S&P inclusion, surging industry EV penetration, and TSLA share rise from 0.6% now to 4% by 2025. By 2025, w/ 20% EV penetration and 20% TSLA EV share, 3.2M delivs and $70 EPS. At 50x P/E ~$750B MktCap~$3,500/sh ~ PV $2,350.
2/ Biggest changes: $TSLA EV share now 20% (was 17%) and 9.5% cost of equity (was 10%) with S&P inclusion. TSLA 1H 2020 EV share 22% vs 2019 17%. TSLA vol growth accelerating: 2020/2H Vol up 60%+ vs 2019/2H Vols. 2021/2H CyTrck/Semi launches will cause 2021-22 EPS to crush est.
3/ $TSLA S&P 500 and 100 inclusions likely soon after 8/31 stock split, in front of 9/22 Battery Day. 3Q Vols and EPS will again surprise, sparking another round of higher ests and PTs. TSLA 90bp float-adj weight in S&P 500 will fuel $40B in TSLA buying (17% float) over 5 days.
4/ 2025 Valuation: With 80M SAAR, 20% EV penetration, and 20% TSLA EV share, 2025 Delivs 3.2M.
At $45K ASP, 20% GM, No Reg Cred, 2x OpEx vs 2020, and 20% TxRt, 2025 NI $15B ~EPS $70/sh.
At 50x P/E (2x 2025-30 PEG 25%)~$750B MC ~$3,500/sh. At 9.5% disct rate, PV $2,350/share
At $45K ASP, 20% GM, No Reg Cred, 2x OpEx vs 2020, and 20% TxRt, 2025 NI $15B ~EPS $70/sh.
At 50x P/E (2x 2025-30 PEG 25%)~$750B MC ~$3,500/sh. At 9.5% disct rate, PV $2,350/share
